Tuesday, May 5, 2009

The tail end of Eclipse?


OK that's a pretty weak play with words, which I'm sure you'll forgive me for, eventually.

Some pretty damming correspondence reaches me, from several sources, about the number of instances (16, by one report) of this problem. While investigations continue, the issue would appear to be caused by 'incorrect procedures' either with a low battery initial start or wet restart. The delamination, which can be seen on the photo (top right) of the inside at about the 6.30 position, is (according to witnesses) clearly caused by excessive heat in this one location. Note that the exterior shot makes it clear that a visual inspection from outside fails to pick up the problem.

But now things get more interesting. Not only are there multiple instances in the fleet, but there does not seem to be any quick (or low cost) way to fix it. Clearly Eclipse Aviation are no longer in a position to provide technical assistance. Third party shops stuck with the problem are concerned about the consequences of a) devising a repair themselves and b) implementing and documenting it outside the normal approval cycle. This is perfectly understandable in the circumstances.

Which leads to my salient point.

What else will cause an FPJ to go AOG? We're aware of the DayJet birds, many of which had 'history' when they were flying and are unlikely to have 'improved' during (in some cases) almost a year of storage. Any PFD or MFD failures, especially on later AvioNG (IS&S displays) will certainly give an owner or pilot the jitters and leave them will little or no recourse. I'm reminded of the discussion, many moons ago now, of how the FPJ had been designed from the outset for heavy duty use. Pity they failed to design the company the same way...

The number of aircraft currently grounded, for a variety of reasons, is salient to our discussions. Clearly, the value (whatever remains) in the brand is lowered for each one that fails to fly. I'm aware of several that are 'hidden' away, sometimes in hangers but just as often on some out of the way field. It's a situation that's been building since before the Chapter 11 announcement on the 25th of November last. I'm confident that a number of these (excluding the DayJet birds) were not technically incapable of flight, but are those who's owners have decided to await upgrades. I think we should make a serious effort to a) identify those tails that have NOT flown for (just picking a number) 100 days and b) shift out those that are 'incapable' of flight.

This is not merely an academic exercise, but has real world value for any purchaser. After all, if 10 FPJ's are AOG, it's less than 5% of the fleet, and would not be worthy of further comment. But if its 50, 60 or even close to 100, then all this talk about '260 produced' rings very hollow, very fast.

Events (or lack thereof) have limited our supply of other news. Piper Aircraft is in new ownership, Adams Aircraft (version 2.0) has closed down. Cessna (and a number of others) have announced major cutbacks and/or program cancellations. Cash, for any type of investment, is very hard to source in almost any part of the world. Until we start to see some sort of economic lift it's unlikely we'll see a purchase of the assets of our very 'own' VLJ company in ABQ, New Mexico.

But I have been wrong before, and, unlike some others associated with this saga, I'm happy to admit my failings. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the Al Mann v Roel Peiper lawsuit is not a real spanner in the works, but merely a bit of local colour.

Shane


338 comments:

1 – 200 of 338   Newer›   Newest»
ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

FWIW Shane I have heard from multiple sources that approximately 25% of the fleet was not flying following the CH-11 announcement, and that number is hovering near 50% since the switch to CH-7.

How that breaks down to 'can not' vs 'choose not' is not presently available to me in any factual number - but ancedotally the majority of owners who I have spoken to re: my plans and the motion to compel indicate they are choosing not to fly for fear of breaking something.

Given the ability to block tail #'s on FlightAware I think it will be tough to determine short of asking the owners we may know or know of on our home fields.

There are also significant limitations with recurrent training right now, only two real providers, plus the training program in AZ.

Black Tulip said...

Is it possible to turn this 'defect' into a 'feature'? Are enough volatile organics baked out of the tailpipe to provide afterburner thrust?

x said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave said...

Now that we have something about Eclipse to talk about, I'm wondering if this engine problem is in any way related to the carbon build-up. I know one occurs in flight at altitude and the other is on the ground at start-up, but would there be a common underlying root cause for both problems? It seems like the engine is very touchy. I wonder how much of this is due to Eclipse doing a rush job in changing engines from the Williams to the PW.

x said...

Scrape Data:
At least 61 tails have flown in the past 7 days.

An additional minimum of 40 tails in the past 30 days (total 101)

An additional 33 tails in the past 100 days (running total 135)

90 tails have no data because of blockage, transfer to Europe, or are Dayjet, NAJ and Linear birds

34 tails appear to fall in the >100 day AOG class, but some of these may have had registration transfered and the scrape tail number has become invalid or are otherwise missing for a variety of reasons (at least one tail's flight to Venezuela).

Beedriver said...

When you design a system so each of its systems is optimized than everything is designed to the edge of its capability and any little problem with park it.

a good example is a formula 1 race car. if any little thing fails it is out of the race. there is no room for any problem or miscalculation to occur. to make a truly reliable system a little extra margin of safety needs to be designed into every component.

Thus the Cessna mustang is heavier, uses more fuel but is a much more reliable system as all its parts were build with a little safety factor so it will operate reliably with minimum problems.

AVIO on the EA500 cannot be replaced even if you want to. from what people have said on this blog, because any replacement system like a G1000 and independent engine controls etc will weight too much and take too much space.

The EA500 is a flawed design because it is, like a race car, designed to close to the edge with no margin to provide for changes growth etc.

baron95 said...

The EA500 is a flawed design because it is, like a race car, designed to close to the edge with no margin to provide for changes growth etc.

--------------------------

Surprising comment, given that they have already demonstrated significant growth in power, fuel, GW, speed, not to mentions switching engines and avionics.

Seems to me like the EA500 is a pretty adaptable design.

baron95 said...

As for the Mustang, it seems to be outclassed in speed by the competition.

It is simply the safe bet at the moment.

Lets see if it will remain so, in the face of the Phenom 100/300 combo vs the C510/C525.

WhyTech said...

"As for the Mustang, it seems to be outclassed in speed by the competition."

This has been true of most Cessna jets (Citations) since day one. Cessna is laughing all the way to the bank.

Pilots obsessed with speed just dont get it when it comes to the overall tradeoffs involved in acft ownership.

baron95 said...

Very True, Whytech.

But it is possible to provide great service AND speed, like the Citation X, right?

There has to be something really bad with the C510s aerodynamics. The thing is so slow, and they had to add a bunch of unplanned aero-fixes to get FIKI. I wonder if someone was asleep at the wind tunnel or CFT terminal.

baron95 said...

CFD even.

WhyTech said...

"But it is possible to provide great service AND speed, like the Citation X, right?"

Sure, byt look at the tradeoffs:
1. acquisition cost
2. maintenance cost
3. operating cost, esp. fuel burn
4. etc, etc, etc

One pays a great deal more to go a little bit faster. And, how many X's does Cessna sell each year compared to other Citations? The X is mostly ego trip.

baron95 said...

Agreed.

baron95 said...

By the way, a personal note to BEG...

Just like ETIRC/EclipseJet was entitled to a breakup fee is the Eclispe 363 sale to them didn't go through [something that really pissed ppl off here] .....

You will be delighted to know, that another foreign potential acquirer of the assets of a US corporation is similarly entitled to a $35M brake-up fee if the deal falls through.

But....

You'd say, that is different, because "I'm sure" that company is putting some real cash, to acquire the assets.

Well....

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but that foreign company is entitled to the $35M brake up fee, even though it is acquiring the assets for a low cash price.

As in ZERO $$$.

Details:

Seller: The Chief
DIP: The Chief
Buyer: Fiat ($0), UAW ($0)

baron95 said...

Break up fee $35M to Fiat.

Dave said...

Does anyone know if Taxijet was the spanish part of Roel's original bid?

Dave said...

Just like ETIRC/EclipseJet was entitled to a breakup fee is the Eclispe 363 sale to them didn't go through [something that really pissed ppl off here] .....Baron, yes it did piss people like myself off because Roel was on all sides of the transaction, which the FIAT CEO isn't also the Chrysler CEO and as such it is comparing apples to oranges.

Shane Price said...

Black Tulip,

Are enough volatile organics baked out of the tailpipe to provide afterburner thrust?

I don't care WHO you are, that's got to rank with the best 'one liners' on this blog.

You, sir, have a really fine sense of humor....

Shane

Shane Price said...

I should have made clear that part of this headline post is an appeal for help. It seems even the materials used in the original construction of the affected area are 'restricted' and the repair shops are finding it hard to uncover a solution.

Any hints to the usual address, which I'll pass on to the parties concerned.

eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

Shane

HowardHughes said...

Baron, really ... give it a rest you boring fellow. Your chap lost the election. Learn to live with it.

I believe this is the Eclipse Aviation Critic NG Blog not the 'wha wha wha I'm a disappointed Republican blog'.

Black Tulip said...

Baron,

"Seems to me like the EA500 is a pretty adaptable design."

True but most aircraft are relegated to hangar queen or static display much later in their careers.

x said...

May 5th Updated flight and destination list for Flight Aware craft

Dave Ivedorne said...

X said:
I am at a remote location with very problematic internet.
.
Perhaps a bigger salad bowl would do the trick...

Bleu cheese or ranch?
DI

bill e. goat said...

CWMOR,
Thanks for the 25-50% DOA numbers.

X,
Thank you for compiling the statistics on tail number utilization- great work !!
--------------------------------------

Dave,
The same thought about carbon build-up at altitude occurred to me. (But- I think Shawn's excellent post yesterday cleared the issue up to being unique to starting issues).
--------------------------------------

BeeDriver,
"The EA500 is a flawed design because it is, like a race car, designed to close to the edge with no margin to provide for changes growth etc."Baron,
"Surprising comment, given that they have already demonstrated significant growth in power, fuel, GW, speed, not to mentions switching engines and avionics."I think the design had (a surprising) amount of capability to support weight growth, by about 33% (!!). That's used up now, probably, although with a stall speed of still below 70 knots, makes me think there is still some weight margin available- I think the airplane passed static tests well, which is what prompted the FAA to give it 10K hours fatigue life, if EAC press releases can be trusted (!?!)
--------------------------------------

Baron,
"But it is possible to provide great service AND speed, like the Citation X, right?"Good point.

WT
"The X is mostly ego trip."Good point too. I had been a bit puzzled over the speed thing- guess it really is just an ego thing- still, a nice slick design...
--------------------------------------

Dave,
Thanks for the Taxijet link- I hadn't heard anything about them- 20 airplanes on order...

(Good point about the Pieper vs Fiat too !).

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
Thanks for the funny video yesterday!!

(Made my day :)

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
"I'm sorry to disappoint you, but that foreign company (FIAT) is entitled to the $35M brake up fee, even though it is acquiring the assets for a low cash price ($ 0)"

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but I'm NOT disappointed by that arrangement, nor was I about ETIRC's.

And figuing RiP was going to bag a couple Mil or so, for a company with less around 900 employees, it seems proportional that Fiat will bag about the same per employee.

"Buyer: UAW $0"Wrong-
Try $10B in health care obligations.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
I was sincere when I asked for help researching the opposing arguments, I'm swamped right now.

I did look at your links to "the arguments", yesterday, in fact.

But remain convinced it is just legal posturing, in an effort to extort more out of the public coffers to "make them go away".

But, I appreciate the links.

bill e. goat said...

The legal argument seems well summed up by this post I found:

"One thing's for sure, Chrysler's (and soon GM's) court battles will afford us a rare opportunity to witness one of bankruptcy law's most fundamental questions being litigated in the highest stakes battles of all time, that being:

"When does the "absolute priority rule" (compare FRB-Cleveland's strict construction of the rule back in 1996 here with the Administration's position today), which establishes a hierarchy of recovery rights among creditor classes, take a back seat to the "fresh start," rehabilitative policy of chapter 11?"

"Chrysler's opening memorandum touched upon this question by focusing on the US Supreme Court's classic pronouncement in NLRB v. Bildisco & Bildisco, 465 U.S. 513, 528 (1984), where the Court stated that the "fundamental purpose of reorganization is to prevent the debtor from going into liquidation, with an attendant loss of jobs and possible misuse of economic resources." This principle, Chrysler argues, is paramount and (quoting NY's judicial patriarch, Bankruptcy Judge Lifland, in the old Eastern Airlines case) 'all other bankruptcy policies are subordinated' to it."

The Bankruptcy Litigation Blog, May 05, 2009

bill e. goat said...

Or, put another way,
From Bloomberg:

"Chrysler Lenders Tested Obama, Lost Game of Chicken"

"An anonymous group of 20 Chrysler lenders calling itself the “Committee of Chrysler Non-Tarp Lenders” said in a statement yesterday that they’d been treated worse than junior creditors during negotiations in violation of 'long-recognized legal and business principles.' They said they were owed $1 billion."

"Their loans are trading at about 15 cents on the dollar, Chrysler has said. TARP is the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program for banks."

(Say, weren't they offered TWICE that?? Fifth AMENDment: "nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation". Don't know about YOU- but THAT sure sounds like JUST compensation to me !)

"Obama’s team had first offered
secured lenders $2 billion for their $6.9 billion in loans, and then raised the offer to $2.25 billion. In a game of chicken, the holdouts asked for $2.5 billion, and Obama’s patience ran out."


"While lenders representing 70 percent of the Chrysler loans agreed to Obama’s offer of $2.25 billion in cash, the dissidents ignored a deadline of 6 p.m. on April 29, according to one of the investors who declined to be named."

"Absolute Priority:"

"Chrysler’s dissident lenders have on their side the “absolute priority”
bankruptcy rule, which holds that value must be distributed according to the legal priorities of the stakeholders. What riled the group that put out the statement yesterday was that junior creditors - a workers health-care trust - would get equity in a new Chrysler entity while the group’s members wouldn’t."


"'Junior creditors are ordinarily not entitled to anything until senior secured creditors like our investors are repaid in full,” the dissidents said in the statement.

"'The absolute priority rule is regularly modified in bankruptcy court', said Richard Hahn, co-chairman of the bankruptcy practice at Debevoise & Plimpton LLP, a New York law firm that isn’t involved in the Chrysler negotiations. Two- thirds of the lenders can force the holdouts to go along with them in a procedure called a cram-down".

"Cram-Down"

"'The U.S. bankruptcy code foresees the possibility that it may be necessary to vary from absolute priority, in particular when a two-thirds majority is convinced it makes legal or business sense,' Hahn said. 'If the government has consents from 70 percent, that’s more than enough” to give equity to junior creditors'.

"The dissidents 'may be calculating that they can get more money by waiting a bit longer,' Hahn said. 'Presumably they will file objections in court. The issue is less whether they’ll win than whether they can cause a meaningful delay that may cause Chrysler or the government to come to an accommodation."

"As they engage in that next game of chicken, the dissidents may receive more of the public condemnation they got yesterday from Obama and from lawmakers including Representative John Dingell, a Michigan Democrat."

"'The rogue hedge funds that refused to agree to a fair offer to exchange debt for cash from the U.S. Treasury - firms I label as the ‘vultures’ -- will now be dealt with accordingly in court,' Dingell said.'?

Bloomberg, May 01, 2009

bill e. goat said...

The previous two post's about sum it up- but here's some "tidbits" (!) of information to flesh it out a bit:
-------------------------------------

"The carmaker had owed a fractious group of 46 banks, hedge funds and other firms about $6.9 billion. These creditors have instead agreed to take $2 billion in cash at the end of the restructuring. It is unlikely that they will have an equity stake in the newly formed Chrysler, one of the sources said."

"But the lenders realized that they would have received far less in a bankruptcy and ceded to government demands."

Washington Post, April 28, 2009
--------------------------------------

"Yesterday, administration officials confirmed that a preliminary deal has been reached with Chrysler's largest creditors -- four major banks that hold more than 70 percent of the company's debt. The agreement would give the creditors $2 billion in cash, a significant reduction from the $6.9 billion that Chrysler had owed."

"An important step in the Chrysler restructuring came over the weekend, when the United Auto Workers reached an agreement with Chrysler. The deal essentially relieves Chrysler of a portion of the $10 billion it owes to the union's retiree health fund, and in return gives the union a majority equity stake in the company."

Washington Post, April 29, 2009
--------------------------------------

"The negotiations that could have kept Chrysler out of court were derailed by talks with creditors that altogether hold $6.9 billion in the automaker's debt. Although four large banks that hold 70 percent of that debt—Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley—agreed to accept Treasury's offer of 33 cents on the dollar for the loans, a group of about 20 hedge funds, holding about $1 billion of the debt, rejected the deal.

"In his remarks yesterday, the president drew a sharp contrast between the "shared sacrifice" made by other players, from the American taxpayer to the Canadian government, to keep Chrysler afloat, and the firms that 'failed to accept reasonable offers to settle on their debt." Because of that refusal, the government would support Chrysler's use of the bankruptcy code "to clear away remaining obligations,' he said. In a parting slap, Obama added, 'They were hoping that everybody else would make sacrifices, and they would have to make none . . . I don't stand with them.'

(Baron, is this what you were referring to, with Obama "threatening" and "taking them down" ???? !!!! ???? Please :)

U.S.News May 01, 2009
-------------------------------------

"While an administration official promised there will be no immediate job cuts for the company's 39,000 employees..."

"Some of the 140,000 employees at Chrysler's network of dealers could also be at risk"

CNNMoney.com, May 01, 2009
-------------------------------------

"Chrysler purchases 78 percent of its parts and materials from U.S.-based suppliers."

Reuters, May 01, 2009
-------------------------------------

"The bottom line, though, is this: If Chrysler goes into bankruptcy, it will likely mean 210,000 extra lost jobs and the loss of healthcare for up to 700,000 UAW retirees."

Emptywheel, April 05, 2009
-------------------------------------

"The hedge funds, which hold some of the company's debt, had refused to accept the government's offer of about 29 cents on the dollar for about $6.9 billion that Chrysler owed, and this reluctance forced the White House to push Chrysler toward bankruptcy in the hopes that a judge will allow Chrysler to shed this debt at prices even lower than the hedge funds were asked to accept.

"A group of investment firms and hedge funds decided to hold out for the prospect of an unjustified taxpayer-funded bailout," Obama said, flanked by his economic, energy and environmental teams. "They were hoping that everybody else would make sacrifices, and they would have to make none. Some demanded twice the return that other lenders were getting. I don't stand with them."

Faux News, April 30, 2009
(Imagine me using a Faux News article...)
--------------------------------------

This one is particularly good:Faux News Interview with UAW President, May 05, 2009
(Imagine me using a Faux News article twice !!)

bill e. goat said...

JUDGE ORDERS UNMASKING OF CHRYSLER LENDERS

"Attorneys representing the dissident lenders' group had asked U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Arthur Gonzalez that the names of their clients, which received a televised reprimand from President Obama last week, be kept secret to protect them from threats of violence."

HA HA HA !!!
Their actions were so sleazy, they knew BEFORE HAND that they'd better hide- READ ON AND SEE:

" 'Their preference quite frankly is to not get in harm's way,' Tom (Kiddie Cancer Tube) Lauria, an attorney representing the lenders' group said at a packed hearing yesterday. Lauria said some lenders had agreed to join the legal battle only if they could remain anonymous.' "

"The decision was another blow to the dissident lenders, who on Monday failed to persuade Gonzalez to reject Chrysler's request to begin using $4.5 billion in government loans to fund operations while in bankruptcy."

"Gonzalez ruled the group's identity must be revealed by 10 a.m. Wednesday"

(Sounds like Wednesday morning will be interesting !! ;)

Annonymous cockroaches can't hide !?!
(Washington Post, May 05, 2009)

(hmmm...certain irony there, I suppose :)

bill e. goat said...

(Well, so much for that scholarly research stuff- now for the fun !! :)

Hi Baron,
"Oh, and as the Chief, I further order medicine man Gonzales to take more money from grandma to immediately pay taxes and to the tribal council AND to pay 80% of salaries for the UAW-tribesman to STAY HOME DOING NOTHING, while the tribal council pays the remaining 20% of salaries."

You mean, as opposed to:
HEDGEFUND SPECULATORS STAYING HOME DOING NOTHING, AND DEMANDING A BILLION DOLLARS FROM THE TAXPAYERS ???

"I order that, even though grandma lost her job, an UAW tribesman has priority over a non-UAW tribes grandma."

You mean, kind of like a senior creditor Grandma compared to a junior creditor Grandma ??

"Screw her if she does not qualify for unemployment. If she does, she can get, on average, 15% of her salary."

Re: 15% (instead of 29%)- You really should warn Granny, to not play with hedgefund sleazeballs.

And, I'm glad you support unemployment benefit extensions-
Bush extends unemployment benefits, 2008

Oops, make that the second time:
Bush entends unemployment benefits, 2003

(Real duzie there, two economic crisis in 8 years...If it hadn't been for the insane tax cuts after 9/11, I'd cut him some slack on the first one).

"F$@#% grandma."

(Time to visit the pharmacy again?? :)

"We need to make sure the UAW tribesman gets 100% of salary for staying home during this proceeding. The tribe does not like grandmas. We like UAW-tribesman, because they can get out the vote and they give more money to the Chief than grandma."

You are talking about getting the UAW vote, instead of the Granny vote, eh?
You, ah, remember:
Granny Get's Doped Up
(By a DOPE !! )
Big-time Granny voter fawning, to buy votes.

"F$@# grandma again."

There might be some drive through
pharmacy open 24 hours...
(They might even take Medicare Part D...)

"Hail to the Chief and the brave UAW-tribesman."Four mentions of UAW. What did I say about that pathological obsession ??
(I'm not sure just what kind of prescriptions Medicare D covers...
Maybe Obama will extend broader coverage though!!)

(I think we could all use a hit of Prozac about now !! :)

bill e. goat said...

fun_to_follow_these_goings_on,

Welcome to the blog!

We're aren't normally this surly and argumentative- we need more EAC and EA500 "meat" to chew on- instead of each other !!

(Thanks for providing some: re- status of Mustang that had an intentional ground loop).

bill e. goat said...

Baron,
I sue for peace !!
(With mutual reservation the "I told you so" clause, of course, if Granny looses her bingo money to UAW thugs / Hedgefund slimeballs !!)
.)

airsafetyman said...

"even the materials used in the original construction of the affected area are 'restricted' and the repair shops are finding it hard to uncover a solution."

The leading manufacturing firms of composite material should be able to identify the manufacturer with a sample in hand even if it wasn't their firm. There are only so many firms that make this stuff. It would seem the idea would be to cut out the affected area and install an aluminum patch. You certainly don't want to go back with the same material, just to get it fried again. Between a good mechanic experienced in working with composites and sheet metal repair, and a D.E.R., it would seem a fix could be worked out fairly quickly.

Dave said...

HEDGEFUND SPECULATORS STAYING HOME DOING NOTHING, AND DEMANDING A BILLION DOLLARS FROM THE TAXPAYERS ??? That would seem to point to why we shouldn't have bailouts in the first place. AIG/Citi/etc speculators got billions, so why should we pick favorites on which speculators get billions from the taxpayers. If the idea is not to reward speculators for making bad bets, then don't reward them; If it is OK to reward speculators, then be consistent.

WhyTech said...

"If it is OK to reward speculators, then be consistent."

Bravo!

bill e. goat said...

Dave,
"That would seem to point to why we shouldn't have bailouts in the first place. AIG/Citi/etc speculators got billions, so why should we pick favorites on which speculators get billions from the taxpayers"I was perplexed why Bush, Paulson and Bernacke (sp) were all preaching doom in Oct, but with great reservation gave them benefit of -considerable- doubt.

As the weeks and months go by, it is increasingly apparent, while it might have been wise precaution initially, it has turned out to be white collar welfare- nothing wrong with that I suppose- if they needed it. I'm not convinced that was the case.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

WT,
I am pleased that you do not like inconsistency either.

?Have you seen any lately?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Can we please stop talking about government theft from everyday joe's in the guise of righting imagined ecomonimc wrongs by those nasty rich people and stay focused on the preemie jet? There is not enough bandwidth on the internet to support http://Obammunismcritic.blogspot.com.

Agree with ASM, the tailcone fix should be pretty straightforward, that is, not a big deal except that there is no single clearinghouse for this and other known and needed issues, no single place to manage the development and certification of an alternative.

Right now, there are a series of uncoordinated, and in some cases conflicting efforts that are probably wasting both time and money that could be better spent were it consolidated into a singular approach. Unfortunately, there are still too many egos and not enough reality.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Piper was sold for less than $100M.

I hope everyone who is dreaming of becoming an airplane mogul, or of recovering more than 5 cents on the dollar of any investment, read that, and reads it again.

A company with almost 200,000 deliveries across 80 some current and legacy product lines, over 70 years, with seven current programs and one development program, was sold for about $85-90M (by my figgering).

American Capital reportedly made $31M on its approximate $54M investment.

Adam - $10M
Columbia - $24M
Piper - $85M
Raytheon Aircraft - Hawker-Beechcraft - $3.3B

EAC - ????

fred said...

Unfortunately, there are still too many egos and not enough reality.

ColdWet :

you are so cleverly right !!

ps : sorry for making you puke , sometimes ... ;-)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

In reviewing my original post about Piper being sold, I may have been optimistic about the sales price by a factor of as much as 3.

Apply that to my current belief the EAC assets fetch $30-40M, and it means the real number could be less than $10M?

OR, that same $10M could develop most of the needed fixes and upgrades. We are in a day for day slip, every day without these fixes in development is another day people have to sit in their plane and make airplane noises rather than turn Jet A into noise.

The BK will not be done before late Fall at best, meaning no fixes will be available in CY '09.

Fred, no worries, I simply don't want to see the blog as a whole get drawn into political arguments, I mean heck if France and others are moving back to the right after trying Leftist Social-Democracy concepts for 4 or 5 decades only to finally reject them as unsupportable why should we in the States even try it? ;^)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

coldwet :

yes , i understand what you mean ...

here or there = all the same : politics sucks !

as for Eco , it is an other story ...

No Eco = No fpj , no fixes , no JetA !
(as in "no money: no funey ,honey !")

i agree very much with your outlook on Eac Assets (if i understood well)

10M$ should be more than enough for the whole lot ...

IF there isn't anyone trying to "play clever " ...

for the only benefit of sellers !

fred said...

as for our social-democrat system :

no , we aren't out of it ! it is so much better for us ...

as it is in Germany , Austria , Belgium , etc...

gadfly said...

'Sorry to interrupt this lively discussion of "left" and "far left" politics, but I had some thoughts about the bird from ABQ and its trouble with its southern extremity, when pointed north on the tarmac.

Four or five possible methods to prevent delamination of carbon filled epoxy laminate:

Move the heat source away (not practical . . . engine position is now “fixed” in design).

Use a much higher temp epoxy (again, not practical . . . epoxies are too limited in heat range).

Fabricate cone of hi-temp metal (other than aluminum . . . but, major change of fabrication/fabricator and weight considerations).

Add shields of metal to outer skin (but major problems of attachment/weight increase).

“Plasma spray” of ceramic or metal oxide powder directly on outer surface of “cone” . . . to reflect heat away from base material . . . reasonably easy application methods in “masked areas” with minor increase in weight, using techniques presently in place for internal surfaces of jet engines (rotor and stator blades, for instance). This would significantly reduce delta-“T” into tail-cone material and be little more than spraying on a different color of paint, with minor increase in weight (measured in ounces/grams).

gadfly

(Unfortunately, me thinks my earliest predictions remain correct . . . the little bird will never be complete, and remains for all practical purposes as dead as Monty Python’s parrot.)

(And No! . . . "Preparation H" is not a viable fix for the empennage.)

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Hi Gad,
"Sorry to interrupt this lively discussion of "left" and "far left" politics,"And "right" (Wall Street bailout) and "far right" (charity for hedge funds) politics.

I think we are ALL very grateful for the interruption !!
:)

gadfly said...

Goat

Thanks for the education. Up until now, I didn't know that "right" and "bailout" could appear in the same sentence. And now I know!

So, let's leave it at that, and get back to the subject of the little bird.

OK?

gadfly

(Patience has limits.)

Beedriver said...

The united states is an underdamped control system. if there is any disturbance we vastly over react and do much more than a logical reaction would be. thus we always do the extreme reaction first and then back down to a realistic fix.

the only advantage to this is that when something happens we react very fast such as our reaction to Pearl harbor etc.

however when we try to stop some terrorists that only killed 3000 Americans (actually 600 foreign nationals were part of that group but they got honorary American citizenship for dying in the NY Trade center) we grab everybody and torture them rather than using our brains to try to sort out the few real villains and then use the most effective interrogation techniques to find out what to do.

fred said...

"Preparation H" is not a viable fix for the empennage. Brilliant !

this is some fine piece of humor ...

without stating anything about your competency on a subject i know zip about ...

Plasma Spray of ceramics ...

Wow ...

few things never change !

before the business plan was science-fiction ...

then the production forecast has been Science-fiction ...

now , even the fix sounds like science-fiction ??

excellent ! even the remaining value is the same way ...!

Beedriver said...

The TSA is a major waste of money.

how about spending the money in helping prevent the 100,000 deaths a year that occur because of illness that people got from the doctor's office or the hospital that they did not have when they went there.

We kill 53,000 people per year in auto accidents but we get hyper over the 3000 that died in the trade center. or the 53 kids that strangers abduct in the US every year

I'm sorry I needed to rant about how we tend to put the most money into things that are not really affecting very many people.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

A bit more on the Piper sale.

For clarification, I have zero inside info here, just putting things together based on public statements/releases and some basic math.

Piper had 2008 billings of approximately $200M on 220 deliveries. Over the 10 years that American Capital owned Piper, they made a total of $51M. During this timeframe Piper delivered 3146 planes (2761 pistons, 385 turboprops), for total billings of approximately $2.1B. Under American Capital, Piper developed and certified the Meridian and Matrix, and launched the PiperJet.

Peak production was 2001 with 475 deliveries, low production was 2008 with 220.

By comparison, Raytheon sold off the aircraft unit that is now Hawker-Beechcraft for reportedly $3.3B. For the same period used for Piper above, Beech delivered 2578 civilian aircraft (1259 pistons, 1319 turbines) with total billings in excess of $10B. Peak production was 2007, low production was 2002.

Yes HBC was soldoff essentially at the peak of the market, but was it worth 35-40 times as much as Piper? On roughly 5 times the billings?

American Capital's $54M total investment into Piper reportedly threw off an average return of 18% each year, for 10 years.

How does this relate to EAC? Not sure, just struck by the variation in numbers with Adam, Columbia and now Piper.

gadfly said...

fred

Plasma spray is not new. I worked with one of the inventors of the system over forty years ago . . . Adriano Ducati (his family in the "old country" made motorcycles). Plasma spraying of various metals has been used on jet engine parts for decades. The technology was also used to "prove" (test) the ablative heat-shield material on various space vehicles. Some of the folks who read this blog, have been to my shop, and seen a cross-section copper and brass anode, from an old 2.5 megawatt plasma generator, from back when I worked with this sort of thing . . . machining/assembling/testing the stuff.

No . . . this is "old" technology.

gadfly

(Mr. Ducati was a great little man. He would tell me what to make (design/machine/etc.) and say, "I want it quick and dirty . . . but precise!" We did a lot of things without red-tape, and without delay, on a minimum budget . . . and got good results.)

fred said...

Mr Gadfly :

i mentioned it :

this is a subject where i know zip ...

thanks for sharing !!

still , i agree very with you !
it will never be complete , just because when a fix for "south pole" will be available , need for some other "not known before" problems on north (or west , east , above or under) will need some other "old science-fiction " fix ...!

if you conjugate this with the impossibility to sort-out assets mess before the end of year ...
(i am waiting for new stunts on the Mann VS Pieper front , delaying the plot even further ...)

i am afraid our ColdWet is trying to revive the Monty Python's parrot ...

baron95 said...

(apologies in advance to Howard Hughes for the off topic posting)

BEG, the opposing argument goes as follows....and by the way it is not a bad argument....

"There is an economic interest for the country, and many unsecured creditors (govmt for taxes and pension guarantees, UAW for pensions and health care), etc, for Chrysler to continue as a going concern.

That economic benefit, to the entire collection of creditors and the country is far in excess of what Chrysler could fetch in liquidation.

Therefore it is appropriate to have a "managed" 363 sale that rewards unsecured and lower tiered creditors, even though secured higher tiered creditors are denied their full claims."

The US gvmt is attempting to show that this is not a sub-rosa circumvention of a proper reorganization plan and violation of the strict creditor priority rule and due process.

I think they will succeed. There is just too much pressure behind that dam and they already twisted the arm of the banks that have TARP funds into accepting it.

In doing that, they'll just delay the inevitable. Chrysler is not a viable business and Chrysler+Fiat+UAW+USGvmt will be an even less viable one.

I wish them luck. I'd love to be proven wrong, but the US Gvmt is already admitting they have no chance of recovering their loans to Chrysler.

This is an unprecedented charity of tax payer $$$ to a foreign company and a union.

It will create a lot of distortion in the market place. It will enable Chrysler to continue for a few more years, losing the govmt provided money.

Why is it bad?

Because it will put pressure on Ford and other automakers to match the Chrysler money-losing car deals. That will destroy value and jobs on viable companies.

There is no free lunch. When the US govmt picks winners (Chrysler, GM, AIG) and losers (Lehman, etc). They create extreme dislocations.

Rewarding the walking dead (Chrysler, UAW) is never good policy.

gadfly said...

fred

You obviously have a "handle" on the situation.

gadfly

("Long live the dead parrot!")

(And wonder of wonders . . . in some things I actually agree with the baron in his off-topic comments . . . and in the home nest of the little bird from ABQ, we've seen a thumbnail sketch of where we're heading on a national scale . . . so maybe it's not so far "off topic" . . . special treatment for a company that should not have received so much political/local government support.)

baron95 said...

CW said... Agree with ASM, the tailcone fix should be pretty straightforward,

I'm surprised by this statement, CW, but I confess that I didn't read all the info behind it.

My understanding is that hot exhaust is heating the composite structure/surface from the outside, and it is delaminating on the inside.

Did I get that right?

If so, we have several issues:
1 - Hot exhaust being directed into the fuselage.
2 - Materials not compatible with 1 used for the tail cone.
3 - Damage is sub-surface.
4 - No ready means of repairs - you can't just putty fill the subsurface melt-away.
5 - Any outside shielding or hot gas redirecting will (even if in a minor way) change aerodynamics and possibly require flight testing and/or require dissimilar materials (metal/composite) bonding.

I agree that this is not likely a safety of flight problem, but I don't think it is a trivial field fix either.

Comments?

baron95 said...

Oh, BEG, I forgot one important part of the opposing argument. And that is that there is an urgency need, because the value of Chrysler's assets are declining rapidly and will soon reach zero.

The creditors are saying that is bogus, because Chrysler decided to wait till the last second to file, so they themselves created the urgency.

But, it is true that Chrysler value will reach zero very soon, if it is not already there.

So I side with the government on that count. Whatever the judge decides, decide fast. I have always been opposed to lengthy legal proceedings of any kind.

So, all in all, BEG, I think the UAW will get its way here. The workers will win the means of production. Is that Trotsky, Lennin or Max? I forgot. Anyone knows?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Baron, it's all inside, there was a simple fix underway at EAC before lights ou8t as reported I believe by Shane, Straightforward does not mean simple, it means straightforward - there are other composite tailcones on other installations - this has the appearance of a physical manifestation caused by operational issues (slow starts on low batteries, starts after wet motor runs, etc.).

As we already suspected and as I am certainly learning, nothing involving this plane is simple, but many things are straightforward.

Maybe the parrot can be resuscitated with a cheeseburger down in the Keys (mixing parrot metaphors).

gadfly said...

baron . . . Comments?

Yes! You and I have the same impression. And that is why I recommended the use of a "thin" (as in paper or paint thin) coating, applied by "plasma spray", to bond with the outer substrate, firmly gripping it, but without the problems of expansion/contraction miss-match of materials. Years ago, I worked personally on the water-cooled $150,000 (each)"moly mirrors" for the airborne laser lab . . . and a few microns of gold reflected vast amounts of "hot light", far beyond anything that would be experienced from the close proximity of hot turbine exhaust.

On a low-tech note, I placed a thin sheet of brass, directly behind the wood burning stove pipe, in our home. In front of the heat shield, you could roast a chicken. Behind, the brass itself is almost cold to the touch, after a hot fire going for hours, all night in the dead of winter.

A thin layer of reflective coating, applied by plasma spray, achieves bonding, without a monolithic surface the would "de-layer" from the subsurface due to greatly varying rates of thermal expansion. We're not after huge temperature differences, but a few hundred degrees for comparitively short periods of time . . . maybe fifteen to thirty minutes at extremes.

Of course, all this becomes an exercise in futility . . . the little bird has other fatal flaws. But someone may learn from this blog, and make a future application.

gadfly

(Cold fish and baron . . . I keep remembering the sign in our kids highschool music room, decades ago . . . something about "Never attempt to teach a pig to sing . . . etc." But I better leave that for another time.)

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Yes HBC was soldoff essentially at the peak of the market, but was it worth 35-40 times as much as Piper? On roughly 5 times the billings?

How does this relate to EAC? Not sure, just struck by the variation in numbers with Adam, Columbia and now Piper.
10B : 200M billings is a ratio of 50 : 1 so the 35-40X sales price would seem cheap on that measure.

The difference in price between the various companies would seem to indicate the longer the past, the better the future.

There are going to be a lot of BK's in aviation this year.

Shane Price said...

It's Snippet Time again...


As Coldwet alluded to, I'd been told of a fix in the works, for the delamination issue. What I didn't understand was how long it had taken...

Herewith the 'insider' note I got today:-

"This was/is a known issue that the PE group was working on for over 2 years. All of the investigation and development was completed, and the final fix was ready for implementation (including field retrofit) but the company went belly up!"

So now you know. EAC knew about it TWO WHOLE YEARS ago, but continued to demand 60% progress payments etc.

What a shower of crooks. Some day, justice will have to be seen to be done.

Shane

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

FJT, $200M/yr to $1B/yr, or $1.2B over 10 yrs to $10B over 10 yrs is what I looked at when I said 5 to 1.

The real lesson I think is perceived value/strength and perceived future value. AAI was weak with a mediocre product, Columbia was mediocre with a good product, HBC was good with a good product (and a rich uncle Ray), and that is why the Piper sale strikes me as odd.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Sorry, meant $2.1B over 10 not $1.2B.

baron95 said...

Makes sense Gad. It is amazing how the paint is protecting the outside of the cone. Must be some good paint job ;)

Shane... Yep. Two years sounds about right for a production line fix + retrofit.

As for the value of these companies, if anyone needs to sell any marginal business in constant need of cash infusions, be it Piper or Chrysler or Eclipse, the price is trending to ZERO.

If you don't have free cash flow, forget it. Only highly speculative purchases will happen at discounts that will give no value for the going concern.

AS IT SHOULD BE.

This correction is doing *A LOT* of good to the US economy.

I'm loving how all the speculators and peak-oil doomsday oracle got schooled by reality in the oil markets. Ditto for the sun-belt real estate speculators. Ditto for all the gals (mostly they were gals) that dumped their SUVs at tremendous losses to pay over sticker for a Prius.

I just love the punishment of extreme positions.

Right now, I'm loving the punishment that the "shorts" and economic collapse oracles are taking in the 2009 bull market.

I'm actually loving the last one the most, since I'm making money in the process.

Got love the US economy. Schooling the experts. Always. If the economy were blond and wore a mini-skirt I'd propose right now.

Aviation WILL return strong - fear not.

Dave said...

I just love the punishment of extreme positions.
Right now, I'm loving the punishment that the "shorts" and economic collapse oracles are taking in the 2009 bull market.
Be careful that you aren't taking an extreme position in your comments. The DJIA is -600 points for the year. I wouldn't call -600 (7%) a bull market as the market hasn't even broken even.

gadfly said...

Cold Wet

After awhile, the numbers lose their meaning. We speak of a “billion” and the Brits speak of a “thousand million”. And our “trillion” is a British “billion” (a thousand thousand million). My head hurts with that many zeros . . . and no telling what my grand-kids will think, when they get the "bill" . . . and understand the value of zero.

The blond was told of the traffic accident in Sao Paolo that killed three Brazilians . . . and she said, “That’s awful! . . . By the way, how many is a brazilian?”

‘Enjoy the rest of the day!

gadfly

(baron . . . now we know Vern’s dirty little secret . . . why he wanted the paint so thick. It was said that when the “Queen Mary” was in restoration at Long Beach, California, they attempted to remove the paint on the “stacks”, only to find that over the years, the steel had rusted away to the point where only the many coats of paint were holding up those massive tubes of steel. 'Guess "new technology" is still based on "old technology",both in theory and in practice. God save "Sherwin-Williams".)

gadfly

"Aviation WILL return strong - fear not." . . . that's true, baron, but we want it to come back with some of the money they took on their way out.

"broken even" . . . I like that! If it broke even, we wouldn't be broke. What's a couple thousand manufacturing jobs in a town the size of Albuquerque?! At least Eclipse did its part! Right?

Deep Blue said...

The very first entry I posted here concerned the faulty rivets used to assemble this aircraft (welding notwithstanding).

This airplane is a manufacturing defect. It is a defective design, assembled under defective control with defective parts.

The founder has been proven an effective swindler; should we assume he was somehow a "6-sigma" quality leader on the production floor? One would like to believe that, but it is not probable. And safety is about probability.

The entire corporate culture from administration through production and after-market was sadly infected by a defective leadership. I give every nod to this team for trying, but they lost their way and were compromised. The customers and flying public that rely on the FAA to protect them, should not be.

This plane needs to be grounded and the FAA should be leading the necessary undertaking.

IMO, there is no possible exit; there is no possible resurrection of the brand, production or design.

stan said...

Interesting filings today in the BK proceedings.

Co-council for Etric et al, petitioned to withdraw from the case since they are not getting paid and Roel Pieper refuses to communicate with them.

On April 22, 2009 Gray Oil & Gas, owner of an Eclipse, claimed a right to engineering data for FIKI, EFIS 1.3/1.5, drawings, and documents necessary for maintenance and upgrades etc etc.

Today the Trustee petitioned the judge to deny their claim by saying the Eclipse purchase documents gave them a right to use the capability but not a right to possess the intellectual property and further if the data were released, it would diminish the value of the company which the Trustee is trying to maximize.

In paragraph 25, the Trustee alleges that a former Eclipse employee in violation of his NDA with Eclipse, helped Gray compile the shopping list of very specific items which in paragraph 24, he stated, they were looking for "keys to the kingdom."

Apparently the Trustee believes the NDA's remain intact after Chap 7. There must be a legal precedence somewhere to validate or refute his belief.

stan said...

Deep Blue,

BTW, I agree completely with your conclusion.

stan said...

Lest I be brought to task for erroneous reporting, the correct spelling in the Etric case is:

co-counsel not co-council

baron95 said...

Deep Blue,

As I have posted in detail before, the precedents is that ALL NDAs protecting IP from the company are valid and in full force for the term of those agreements.

The individual that perhaps caused a proven diminution of the value of the assets by leaking protected information may be liable for that loss of value.

baron95 said...

Dave, SPX is up 38% from the lows, positive YTD, and Tokyo is trading 4% higher today....

You can pretend it is not a bull market, but the numbers are the numbers.

Autos and Housing are 30% lower, overall economy is 10% lower, govmt and healthcare are flat. That points to an overall 15% drop in economic activities and profits, but the market over corrected by 4 times that, and is now coming back. It should settle somewhere 15% shy of peak.

But if you want to bet against $11T in liquidity being injected/guaranteed by the Fed/Tres, be my guest. I would not take that bet.

Jim Howard said...

I saw N2YU, #160, taxi to the ramp at KAUS today. It's certainly easy to see the appeal of the little jet, it does look perfect for an owner pilot.

It's too bad the execution was soon badly bungled. And I hope the pilot of that airplane has the scabbed on real backup adi, against the day the displays start to flicker.

Dave said...

Co-council for Etric et al, petitioned to withdraw from the case since they are not getting paid and Roel Pieper refuses to communicate with them.They should have seen that coming from a mile away, but instead they did business with Roel anyway.

Apparently the Trustee believes the NDA's remain intact after Chap 7. There must be a legal precedence somewhere to validate or refute his belief.We aren't after Chapter 7 yet. The company is still an entity that exists while it is in Chapter 7. The company still exists albeit with a skeleton crew.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave said...

You can pretend it is not a bull market, but the numbers are the numbers.I'd consider something a to be a bull market when that market does significantly more than break even and not even that has happened. Neither the SPX nor the DJIA have broken even. As you say, the numbers are the numbers and both are negative compared to the start of the year. It just isn't logical to me to call something a 2009 bull market when 2009 is still in the red rather than being in the black.

But if you want to bet against $11T in liquidity being injected/guaranteed by the Fed/Tres, be my guest. I would not take that bet.I'm saying that as of today with the markets are still in the red so it is factually incorrect to say right now that this is the 2009 bull market as the markets haven't even caught up to how they began the year.

bill e. goat said...

Beedriver,
From you analogy of US public policy to control systems, I can tell you are a deep thinker. Regarding underdamped ( and maybe oversprung?) political (and monetary?, and social?) policy, I will have to ponder, and get back with you- but it is an interesting topic.

I agree with you regarding response after 9/11- in reality, environmental policy will have far greater consequences than 9/11.

"The TSA is a major waste of money".
What irked me was, the guys doing the job before, for $7 per hour, were not to blame. Professional (?) security apparatus (CIA and FBI) administrators are who screwed up. So, what was the solution- change the screeners, not the bureaucrats that screwed up.

A few things in particular seem absurd to me:
a) The FBI director does NOT get canned
b) The CIA director gets the Medal of Freedom
c) Instead of fixing an obviously broken bureaucracy, we create an even larger "super bureaucracy"
d) The $20K per year screeners, who performed their tasks perfectly in 9/11, are the ones who get more bad press than the FBI or CIA- incredible.
e) The super bureaucracy is named "Homeland" security- that is just so over the top Nazi-ish, I am both shocked and offended- yet the press is totally oblivious to any connotations.

All that said, I am glad we do have good security on the airlines. But I heard on the radio today, that there are over 1 million people on the "terrorist watch list"- that is just utterly insane- better to take the TSA budget and do some real investigation.

And change the laws (if necessary) to kick out foreigners if they are on the "watch list". I am very happy to have folks visit- and I'm glad to have them stay and become citizens, if they are following the legal process to become one. But we are gutless -and brainless- to treat temporary visitors as entitled. Kick their sorry asses out if there is ANY doubt- visiting the US is NOT a "right", it is a privilege. As it is in every other country.

End of rant.
.)

bill e. goat said...

Hi Dave,
Thanks for the link to the econ #'s.

I think Baron is right, the Chrysler buyout has definitely stimulated the economy. (Okay, Baron hasn't said that yet:).

But, I agree with Baron, that I think things are "going up".

Regarding your good stat's, I guess it's a matter of the glass being half full, or half empty.

You're right- it's down x% for the year. And it's not explicitly "a bull market for 2009".

But, the stat's you provide show it's up almost 30% in 2 months (6626 on March 02, vs 8512 on May 04). That's a pretty strong surge to me, and it's been sustained so far. So technically, it's a "bull market", and it's happening in 2009, so I guess one could say "a bull market IN 2009", but (not yet) "a bull market FOR 2009". (I ought to get a job selling cigarettes or something...)

My enthusiasm is tempered by the unemployment rate- some predict to (slightly) exceed 10% later this year.

Sure is a weird time in the economy- I hope our fellow bloggers are surviving the turmoil well.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Gadfly,
I am continually amazed at everything you have been involved in (re: Ducati and plasma coatings).

(I liked your "Brazilion" joke !! :)

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
Thanks for posting your call on the "opposing" side of the Chrysler BK proceedings- I agree with your logic on the benefits, and rational.

"This is an unprecedented charity of tax payer $$$ to a foreign company and a union."

Sadly, I do not think this is unprecedented. It's a several $B sink, not sure how much is a loan versus giveaway/investment.

I prefer the latter term- in the big picture, the "investment" in Chrysler is not where the payback (direct or indirect) is- it's the jobs preserved at dealer and supplier networks, and in the communities where those are located.

I can see your point, about it being an unfair (subsidized) competitor to Ford, which is true. But every Fiat sold is not going to take away a Ford sell, since Ford only has a 14.6 % market share. (Indeed, I suspect it will more directly compete with Hyundai and Kia).
Ford Market share

bill e. goat said...

Baron,
Regarding US government involvement, and union involvement- both of them want out of Chrysler/Fiat as soon as they can- the union has said it wants to sell out as soon as it can break even, government will probably just "gift" the loans to the new co. Not the best solution, theoretically, but in practice, I think it is the least bad solution.

bill e. goat said...

CWMOR and FJT,
Thanks for posting financials on the recent aircraft OEM sales (both of product, and factories).

I haven't had time to do any analysis, but thanks for the data- hope to catch up soon.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Stan !
"Co-council for Etric et al, petitioned to withdraw from the case since they are not getting paid and Roel Pieper refuses to communicate with them."

I thought Etrick was long gone- guess they are trying to get their cut of the deal-gone-bad provisions Baron referred to (?)

On April 22, 2009 Gray Oil & Gas, owner of an Eclipse, claimed a right to engineering data for FIKI, EFIS 1.3/1.5, drawings, and documents necessary for maintenance and upgrades etc etc...the Trustee alleges that a former Eclipse employee in violation of his NDA with Eclipse, helped Gray compile the shopping list of very specific items which in paragraph 24, he stated, they were looking for 'keys to the kingdom.'"

That explains a lot- I thought the Gray Oil thing smelled pretty weird. A relatively absurd arguement, but they didn't have anything to loose by trying it I guess.

"Apparently the Trustee believes the NDA's remain intact after Chap 7. There must be a legal precedence somewhere to validate or refute his belief."

I think it is in the best interest of all involved, if EAC stays intact, with it's IP, and it would have been nice if things would have moved faster so the work force could have been intact as well. That would have benefited everyone involved, I think.

That said, I think an alternative "best use" would be for Detroit to buy EAC and use it for sheetmetal, small assy's etc. Too bad aircraft and automotive are both hurting. (Ford made trimotors, now, maybe singles and twins ?? :)

(Could you post a link to the doc's, re: paragraph 25? Thanks!)

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
Dead Parrots
.)

"This parrot is no more- it has ceased to be."

(Let's hope our "favorite" VLJ does better, eventually !!)

baron95 said...

Dave,

2009 Bull Market as in the Bull Market that *STARTED* in 2009 - duh!

We won't go back to the peaks of SPX 1400 for many years.

I'm looking for a Bull from way over sold to properly reflecting a 15% slower economy.

I think what most people are failing to realize is the unprecedented speed by which companies shed workers and inventory. That has never happened before. Most if not all non-unionized companies got ahead of the slowdown in workforce reduction. So productivity is actually up, so the recovery in profits then hiring will be faster than most think.

It is just too bad that unionized companies like GM and Chrysler are unable to shed hourly workers (without paying them to stay home or leave) to match demand.

That is why they died.

But luckly, unionized workplaces are a tiny minority of the non-gov workforce, so companies were able to respond much faster to the down cycle. They'll come out of it much faster with less damage to profits and productivity.

Anyway, prognostications are a dime a dozen, but for Aviation, a lot of the new designs, the ones that get funding preserved, may be coming out at the right time - the next up cycle.

I have high hopes for 788/789/77F, Phenoms/Lineage, CJ4, perhaps the DA50, Djet, etc.

baron95 said...

BEG said... Sadly, I do not think this is unprecedented. It's a several $B sink, not sure how much is a loan versus giveaway/investment.

----------------------------
The government expert has already said on the stand that there is virtually ZERO likelyhood Chrysler would pay the govmt's loan. It is a gift.
------------------------------------
BEG said... the "investment" in Chrysler is not where the payback (direct or indirect) is- it's the jobs preserved at dealer and supplier networks, and in the communities where those are located.
---------------------------------
Wrong, BEG. When you enable companies like Chrysler and its dealers to sell cars at a loss, you are causing losses at other automakers and their dealers. How many GM, Toyota or Ford dealers in the US (of the 1,600 that have failed in the last few months and the 2,000 or so that will fail next year) would be up and running and in business employing people if the gov hadn't propped up Chrysler.

Ford is THE top brand that Chrysler buyers are defecting to. Chrysler customer loyalty has plunged to 48% in March and most are buying Fords.

baron95 said...

And BEG, I'm not too upset about the asset gifting to Fiat/UAW in the Chrysler case per se.

The real reason I'm upset, is that large Bankruptcy cases in the second district tend to set precedents for the country and the future.

So now, every 20bit Eclipse/Etirc in the future will be able to point to the Chrysler 363 sale as a precedent to circumvent creditor's due process, priority rules, arms-length requirements etc.

That is the real travesty.

fred said...

wow ...

things are up ?

wow ... (again)

ok ; (sorry in advance Mr Coldwet ,toilets are the sixth door on the left ...)

if you accept than nothing is new under the sun , no one and nothing really so differently better than all others ...

you just have to look back a little ...

look on "The rising sun" (Japan) a few years ago , at this very moment , there isn't a iota of difference into what did happen to them and what is going in USA , now ...

for them , it has lasted for the last 18 years ! (and it is not particularly good)

What are the fundamentals in USA , why is that it could go better ?

Baron i am sorry to point that out , but "Peoples" should NEVER be treated as "Adjustment variable" ...

in a country where 76% is made by consumers : to sack workers as soon as demand or market go weak is a non-sens !!

i am sorry (exact word : i feel sorry for you) to point out that wherever you are , here or there , it is NOT a fight of the mighty against the weak ... not the war of the wealthy against the proletarian ...!

this is already extremes , that has been visited by Soviet Communism , before ...

so extreme that both extremes finish by touching each other , in their natural conclusion = Normal peoples end-up poorer when they were only looking for better !

so NEVER get confused by Conjectural effect VS Structural Effects !!

38% up , wow , good grace !! after loosing at least double of this , what a miracle ...

and what about all those sacked who are going to stop spending ?
stop paying their dues ? stop paying back the banks ? kids who won't have good education ?

there is an aspect of SYNERGY , you seems to miss ...

in any country , it is NOT when the most are treated like "variable" that the country goes for better ...

if all the peoples who suffer to make ends meet stop working (because they have nothing more to loose ...) you're just done !

so , please stop watching your belly in wonder why it is a circled shape ...

you may not like what is going on with GM ... nonetheless , it is called Democracy ...you know ...
(nothing and no one is perfect on earth ...)

and an other point of view :

are the debts in a better shape than previously ?

not at all !

the purchasing-power of the vast majority of US citizens is still declining ...

debts are only growing ...

to the point that TAX are going to be ridiculous ...

My friend who was looking to buy a flat in Soho/Nolita N-Y , just proposed me to buy the second half of a top-floor to get a better deal ...

his idea was more or less good , so i had a look on the proposal ...
then i called the selling-Agent to inquire about "charges" and tax ...

it was a soft voice from (probably) a charming women ...

she is going to think that on this side of Ocean we are wild-animals (yes, we are ! ;-) )

because when she told me that the City+state+federal tax was more than 5000 $ per month , i couldn't restrain a "are you fucking mad , there or what?"

if the same amount would be asked for the same size flat in Paris or Frankfurt for a YEAR tax ...

i would probably be the first one to shoot on sight any tax-agent ...!

so all of this to say :

what you are feeling now is CONJECTURAL ... as for STRUCTURAL , just nothing has changed yet ...

fred said...

Billy :
(still apologizing to our "poor" Coldwet , after this i'll stop!promised ! ;-) )

Kick-out peoples ?

i am sorry , but this is a very touchy subject ...

i am neither for or against !

just say , anyone has to be EXTRA careful with such subject ...

if you think it is right to kick'em out , then you might find difficult to buy freshly picked tomatoes or strawberries ...

it may be difficult as well for some of your fellow citizens to go to poorer countries to "buy" a wife on the grounds "life is better" ...

because you see , the problem is that when "jobs goes scarce" would you think any Job-less WS former guru would accept to work in mud and picking ?

i agree very much on the "respect rules or get kicked" but at the same time :
Why there is so many "illegal workers" ?

it Might be because at some point , it was nice to have them doing what others thought as "too much degrading" to be done ...

you see the problem is a bit more complex , everything is intermixed ...

so please , think twice before stating a "good idea" that would be interpreted in the "wrong way" by any others ...

Kathy said...

Gentlemen,

I was put off by the ambiguous delamination issue that was brought up awhile back. It was written as to seemingly include the tail section composite fairings when in fact it was the tail cone of the engine. Very old news. Apologies are in order for SoccerDad who was on point.

I have seen and held the metal lined tail cone and it's quite eloquent. I don't know if the lining is aluminum or SS (although judging from the weight I'd guess aluminum..."guess" is key since I wasn't involved with PE).

To make things interesting there is a SB out there that requires the mating (flange) surface of the composite tailcone to be primered to prevent any corrosion between the tailcone flange and engine flange (as if the tailcone will last long enough before blistering to see such condition). It's a PITA SB and expensive for customers. Techs were quite confused since the possible corrosion condition was nothing compared to the other issues that needed to be addressed at the time. Anytime an engine removal was required for a phostrex leak cleanup the SB was complied with. Easier to remove the tailcone engine off than engine on.

Does this mean that the entire inner tailcone surface must be primered before the metal insert is riveted / bonded in and installed? PEs chime in please...or at least email Shane. Once the metal liner is fitted there is no easy way to check for delam or other degradation under it.

Forget about any plasma or ceramic coatings. It took MORE than 2 years to come up with the liner band aid and it's still in complete limbo.

Shawn mentioned ground crew attention. THE PLANE NEEDS TO BE POINTED INTO THE WIND WITH AN APU CONNECTED TO START THE ENGINES if you want to eliminate the possibility of problems, not only with the tailcone but the starter/gen as well. HELLO!...The start battery is in the NOSE section!

Shawn you mention "Blue ICE?!" Is that what P&WC refers to as the ablative coating? Blue ice is typically a buildup of lavatory waste.

If in doubt have a line person or FO spin the fan by hand (he / she isn't going to get sucked into the little thing) and jump off wing and give the pilot an indication to initiate start with the fan still turning. Yes, desperate measures for a desperate problem.

WhyTech said...

"If in doubt have a line person or FO spin the fan by hand (he / she isn't going to get sucked into the little thing) and jump off wing and give the pilot an indication to initiate start with the fan still turning. Yes, desperate measures for a desperate problem."

Wow! No doubt one of many desperate measures that will ultimately be necessary. Anyone surprised that Ken is not hanging around bragging what a gerat little jet this is any longer?

airsafetyman said...

Other airplanes have hot start issues as well. For what it's worth we always pointed the aicraft into the wind on start and always, where possible, used reliable auxiliary ground power for the first start of the day. We also deep-cycled the batteries regularly.

WhyTech said...

"We also deep-cycled the batteries regularly."

Cant help but wonder if the EA 50 battery capacity is marginal in the interest of keeping weight down?

airsafetyman said...

"Can't help but wonder if the EA 50 battery capacity is marginal in the interest of keeping weight down?"

I would guess that that is the case. Another needed modification might be to install some adaquate batteries in the airplane.

fred said...

some adequate batteries in the airplane

me wonder as well how much closer to the line "over the cliff" this added new weight would bring the matter to ...?

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Guys jump back to Deep Blues summary.

It is nice to try to brainstorm fixs the problems in isolation, but if ecorpse worked on the blistering composite for two years and all the came up was a metal sleeve to hide the problem, it is unlikely that painting a TBC on it is a robust solution.

We are seeing confirmation of where the surprising performance comes from. Confirmation of what Stan was saying from the very first blog post. This 4000lb airframe was stretched past it's limits.

The battery is too small, and is in the wrong place. Who else guesses that the battery was in the back on the Williams powered 60% show horse.

As deep blue again summarised, this parrot in not pining for the fiords, and it is not shagged out after a long squawk. It is stuffed!

Lets start at the front:

The Windscreens need a redesign for a robust FIKI solution.

Avio NfG needs to be ditched for something supportable, with the huge program that entails.

The interior is not very high quality.

The brakes are too small.

The tires are too small.

The wheel wells are too small to fix the last 2.

The engines coke up.

The exhaust cowl is thermally distressed.

The tail plane bushings have issues.

According to one of the Wedges hand picked managers, the quality of the planes is shit.

The plane has a 10Y airframe life.

The manuals are crap.

What an joke!

fred said...

please , freedom , please ...

ColdWet seems to be a nice person ...

after making him puke more than his share ...

don't go scaring him to death !

So the parrot is only resting ... ;-)

WhyTech said...

"What an joke!"

What do you expect for $1-$3 billion? IMO, more glitches still to come. If Vern had spent more time on the production floor instead of running around in a tux collecting trophies and posing for photo ops, things might have turned out a little better (but then, maybe not!).

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Fred,

Cold wet has the only viable plan (not that it will work in practice because no one will take it).

Step one: Remove engines.
Step two: Install engines on different airframe.
Step three: dispose of anything not installed on new airframe.

fred said...

things might have turned out a little better ...

huuuummm ...

no , actually , i think the peoples working on "production floor" would have been death-scared of amazement to be associated with such a cuckoo ...

they would have left ...

and the "war" (this miserable plot) would have ended by lack of combatant !

fred said...

Freedom :

i arrived to the same conclusion long ago ...

apart from the engines , what is to be saved ? (not too much mystery about ...)

this is why i wonder why some still want to buy the "assets" ! (worthless , IMO)

i agree as well , no one will take it ...

hard-dreams are difficult to kill , write-off difficult to take ...

interestingly enough , engines are probably one (if not the only) part NOT to be touched (compromised ?)to much by Vern's genius ...

guess what ?

it is the best part of it !!!

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Sorry "what a joke".

You get the idea.

If only ....

Without the Wedge there would have been no $3B to burn.

In a confirmation of Godwins law, saying that things would have been "better" if the Wedge had spent more time on the shop floor, is like saying the invasion of russia would have gone "better" if Hitler hadn't dithered the spring away in indecision.

I'd go with your "maybe not"

fred said...

Step three: dispose of anything not installed on new airframe.


was it Mr Gadfly who suggested to make them "target practice" out of ABQ ...?

if memory serve me well , he mentioned a "pay per shot" kind of system ??

noooo...

forget about this idea , it won't work ...

it would be the first time , someone would actually make money out of Fpj ...

real weird idea ... making money ... out of Fpj ...!

FreedomsJamtarts said...

That sounds like my idea of a golf driving range with a FPJ as a target. Sort of like the one at Lake Taupo

Dave said...

2009 Bull Market as in the Bull Market that *STARTED* in 2009 - duh!
We won't go back to the peaks of SPX 1400 for many years.
It is hard for me to take you seriously when you try and throw in red herrings. When did I say anything about 2008 (SPX 1400)? All I have said is that the markets are still lower now than they were earlier in the year. I think what BEG said about this was accurate as yes the stock market has gone up from its lows in 2009, but for 2009 the market is still down from how it began the year. My objection has been to you calling 2009 a bull year ("the 2009 bull market"), but I have not said that the market hasn't gone up from its lows.

Dave said...

What do you expect for $1-$3 billion? IMO, more glitches still to come. If Vern had spent more time on the production floor instead of running around in a tux collecting trophies and posing for photo ops, things might have turned out a little better (but then, maybe not!).I think the Eclipse would have been a lot better without Vern (especially if we are to believe that Williams was the one pulling the strings until Vern overthrew him) even if that meant less capital since Vern wasted so much capital and he and Roel did so much damage all the way around. Eclipse would have been better off with less capital but more sane management with someone else versus more capital and insane management with Vern/Roel.

fred said...

My objection has been to you calling 2009 a bull year ("the 2009 bull market"), but I have not said that the market hasn't gone up from its lows. just drop it , dave ...

he won't acknowledge that even a non-working-clocking give the right time twice a day ...!!!

if you don't fix the clock , you can choose to watch it only 2 times a day , and still be perfectly right ...

fred said...

freedom ...

was it your idea ??

sorry many times to give paternity to someone else ...! ;-)

still a great idea , even if totally weird ...

making a buck with Fpj , some peoples have such weird ideas ...! ;-)

Dave Ivedorne said...

Kathy said:
there is a SB out there that requires the mating (flange) surface of the composite tailcone to be primered to prevent any corrosion between the tailcone flange and engine flange (as if the tailcone will last long enough before blistering to see such condition).

:-)

-----------------------------------

FJT said:
The Windscreens need a redesign for a robust FIKI solution.

Setting aside the need to repeatedly apply a coating to the windscreens for FIKI for a moment, isn't there some history of the windscreens crazing? They need a redesign for a robust CAVU solution!

----------------------------------

WhyTech said:
If Vern had spent more time on the production floor instead of running around in a tux collecting trophies and posing for photo ops, things might have turned out a little better.

You may recall that Microsoft didn't really get Uber successful until after Wedge was no longer employed there. He could have spent 24/7 on the production floor in a t-shirt & jeans, the results might even have been WORSE. He's a walking, talking, breathing, sleeping, eating, and pooping Reality Distortion Field Generator.

DI

Dave said...

Empty HondaJet land by empty Eclipse facility

baron95 said...

"If in doubt have a line person or FO spin the fan by hand (he / she isn't going to get sucked into the little thing) and jump off wing and give the pilot an indication to initiate start with the fan still turning."
----------------------------
I didn't know you could hand prop a jet. Wow!!!

Shadow said...

Baron, I believe the correct term in relation to the Eclipse 500 is hand job, not hand start. :D

baron95 said...

Geez Shadow.... and here I thought the EA500 was a female plane.

I ain't touching that jet now.

Beedriver said...

90% of People think that a bill that you do not have to pay for a year is free.

If you want to learn about a basic People forcing function here is a good book to read. "executive Leadership by Elliott Jaques and Stephen Clement" on of his basic concepts I have found to be terrifyingly true is his concept of time horizon.

Basically 45% of all people over 16 years old have a time horizon of 3 months. another 45% have a time horizon of less than 1 year. So what? Well the time horizon is the time in the past or foreseeable future where something that has happened or will happen in the future has any effect on a person's decision making process. this means that for 90% of the people in the world if it is over a year away it does not matter. it is no wonder than that people will buy a house with an arm that resets three years from now? when there is no way they can ever pay it off. to them it will not happen. or that you can buy things for your house, a new TV or water bed at a huge price and interest rate and if it is sold as "pay nothing for a Year" it is Free to lots of people.

this is a scary concept when applied to government in that most of the people who vote cannot ever see that sometime in the future we will need to pay the national debt back.

in politics there is an old saying "if it happened more than 6 months ago it will have no effect on the election" an example of this is Bush 1 was a hero for winning the Gulf war and even smarter for not conquering the whole country (see what happened when Bush 2 conquered all of Iraq) When Bush 1 ran for election 9 months later the economy was in the tank and all the electorate elected an unknown from Arkansas with no knowledge of how to be president because he promised to turn the economy around.

Perhaps we should go back to only those with land are allowed to vote or better yet only allow those over 50 to vote. This is because a person's time horizon gets longer the longer they live.

Jaques has many other interesting insights that relate to how to set up an organization and how to find the right people for each level in an organization

Black Tulip said...

Your reporter is signing in, on-the-scene at Sunriver, Oregon. The are no Eclipses or Eclipsoids in sight. Nor is there a bronze plaque commemorating the September fly-in. Will there be a 'Gathering of Eagles' again this year?

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Flower Boy,

There is chatter of a 2009 fly-in, but I think you will be waiting awhile at sunriver as I doubt it will be held there. Plus the economy sucks, not as many people flying these days.

WhyTech said...

Amusing quotes from Controller EA50 ads:

"AVIO NG W /ALL OPTIONS"
" Perfect condition"
"Jet Complete PAID"
"Motivated Seller"
"Flown only by Eclipse Pilots"
"Fully airworthy"
"Ready to fly"
" On JetComplete"

Some folks just never get it.

Deep Blue said...

May I respectfully share with the blog an honest sentiment?

This airplane, the Eclipse 500, is a DEFECTIVE AIRCRAFT.

This blog, while influential, informative, entertaining and engaging, at times seems to collectively make the impression that this whole EAC venture is some kind of joke; one to be ridiculed (understandably).

But might I respectfully suggest that this show is over; this plane is dangerous and this blog is being used for less than its members are truly capable of.

All of the very talented and wise contributors, including the tireless web sponsors, have created an enormously helpful and influential (and very unique) site.

But I might suggest that at this point, the tone and direction of this site be directed toward the very serious safety threat the E500 seems (by overwhelming evidence) to present to the flying public (owners, passengers and others).

My 30+ years of aviation experience tell my gut that this airplane is an utter disaster waiting to happen.

May I please appeal to the blog to make a concentrated effort to help communicate and influence the only thing all of us here know must be done:

GROUND THIS AIRPLANE.

Let's please not let the drama of Vern, Roel, et al eclipse us from the overwhelming issue:

THIS AIRPLANE IS A DANGER.

Call me dramatic. But I know better. My gut tells me disaster is around the corner if this "thing" isn't grounded.

Regards and thank you for the opportunity to share this site with you all.

baron95 said...

Beedriver said....most of the people who vote cannot ever see that sometime in the future we will need to pay the national debt back.
------------------------------------
Why?

Why do we HAVE TO pay the national debt back?

Why can't we refinance and roll it over forever?

Why can't we default, like countless countries have done in the past with little to no lasting negative consequences?

It sounds to me like the American people are much smarter than you think and will not let you scare them to death about the debt.

You are trying to create a problem where there is not problem. All our debt is in our national currency, which we alone control. There is not country in the world strong enough (militarily or economically) to impose any "consequences" on America.

So chill out dude. Stop trying to scare Americans into living in poverty. They know better. They'll keep on "partying" all the way to the bank, while you tremble with fear in the corner.

Cheers.

baron95 said...

Deep Blue said... the very serious safety threat the E500 seems (by overwhelming evidence) to present to the flying public (owners, passengers and others).
-----------------------------------
Huh????!!!!!!

What overwhelming evidence? Hundreds of JETS flying for a couple of years, by the most inexperienced pilot population among jet pilots, without a single fatal accident and without a single accident linked to a plane fault (the only accident being an overwhelming pilot error - a bunch of them actually).

Please!!! "Overwhelming EVIDENCE of very serious safety threats to the public".

You can't be serious.

Had you said "Potential safety concerns", I'd go along with that.

The LAST thing this blog needs is to over hype the EA500 problems.

As I said before, there are plenty of legitimate issues with this plane to discuss and be concerned.

There is no need to fabricate or over hype any.

As a new jet flow by inexperienced pilots, the EA500 has a safety record that is WAY above average.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Hi Beedriver,
Thanks for the reference to
Executive Leadership-Complexity
Sounds like a thought provoking read.

(The idea of only over 50 folks voting has some fun merit to consider).

Still haven't gotten to the Federalist Papers, as FlyBoyMark recommended reading.

(Thankfully, Fred hasn't given me any homework lately !! :)

bill e. goat said...

(As Shane noted with links running together with text, I'm finding all the hyperlink "tags" now require an explicit space mark to force separation, including italics we often use for quotes here- odd the sudden change- maybe something to do with virus protection- seems like it all started about the time of the mostly-missing (so far) Conficker scare a few weeks back).

(another Faux News article !)

Fair said...

Deep Blue - I'm compelled to chime in and agree with Baron. Please don't overhype issues. I'm glad you have such a passion for safety, as do most of the people who post on this blog, and work in the industry for that matter.

Are there problems with this jet? You bet.

Do the chances of problems getting worse increase as time goes by without a company investing time and resources into the fixes - absolutely.

Will someone eventually die while flying in an Eclipse? The law of averages says yes.

Is there "overwhelming evidence" the airplanes are a safety hazard? I don't think so.

Discussing the problems is good. Discussing the problems and offering potential solutions is better. Keeping a balanced view of facts vs opinions in great!!

Blog on!!!

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Deep_Blue
If I may (laboriously) paraphrase you:

"This airplane (company), the Eclipse 500 (EAC), is (had) a DEFECTIVE AIRCRAFT (MANAGEMENT).

"My 30+ years of aviation experience tell my gut that this airplane (company) is an utter disaster waiting to happen.

"GROUND (EXPOSE) THIS AIRPLANE (COMPANY).

"THIS AIRPLANE (COMPANY) IS A DANGER (DISASTER)".

My main interest in the Eclipse story was financial reality of the company, rather than the performance reality of the airplane. (I found the airplane rather conventional- the company, on the other hand, distinctly unconventional. They were doing things, financially, that had never been done before.

Or, should I rather say: they were attempting to do things which had repeatedly failed in the past, but this time on an unprecedented scale.

And the result, was an unprecedented financial disaster- a conventional outcome, on an unconventional scale.

But, regarding the airplane, I think it is reasonably safe.

I would say, commendably safe, if it included a standby indicator- an inconceivable, glaring omission, in my opinion. Others might point that so far, it has not been an issue. This is one area- actually, the only one- where I would liken the unconventional approach of the business model, to the unconventional approach technically- for all practical purposes: everyone else provides a standby indicator.

My only fear with the airplane, is that one day, there will be some conventional outcome of ignoring conventional wisdom of including a standby instrument.

That said, so far, it has indeed been commendably safe, when flown within published restrictions. I think it's done pretty well- if the company had infinite financial resources in post-TC, it would have fixed most of the bugs already.

But it didn't, and they haven't been fixed (yet- if ever- but I think in 2-3 years they will be, hey- what's another half decade or so...).

I think the fact that most of the posters are "critics" and/or skeptics, may be the source of your understandable concern (one which is well shared here).

While we fairly represent the airplane's weaknesses, perhaps it's strengths are not given the attention they deserve.

(I wish the owners would participate more, but can understand their reluctance, at least until things shake out with the company BK process).

bill e. goat said...

Kathy,
Thanks for your insight on the tailcone (and many other) issues.

It does seem a bit "disruptive" to have to turn the airplane into the wind to start the engines- I can see that winds above a certain value, but for routine operation, it seems like a pain- but I guess if it was a "temporary" work around until the aluminum insert was fielded, it was a livable arrangement.

Deep Blue said...

B95/Fair:

I'm not overhyping; you're both underhyping (really, ignoring, the inherent safety issues).

This is not a piston twin flying skud-runs to Block Island or Martha's Vinyard.

This is a pressurized twin jet operable in the flight levels, at near-airline speeds.

It is utterly incoherent to fly this "thing" as a jet performance aircraft, especially under IFR. I have no idea how an ATP could file a flight plan with his/her name on it as PIC.

I appreciate your perspectives but I believe you are trivializing the inherent safety risks.

That however, is ultimately for the FAA and the owner/operators to assess--and live with.

Best regards.

bill e. goat said...

Beedriver,
"90% of People think that a bill that you do not have to pay for a year is free."

Baron,
"You are trying to create a problem where there is not problem. All our debt is in our national currency, which we alone control. There is not country in the world strong enough (militarily or economically) to impose any 'consequences' on America."

Baron- thank you for making Beedriver's point *very* convincingly.

(Do you change your socks after shooting yourself in the foot, or just keep them on for the next time? :)
-----------------------------------

Oh, I crack myself up !! Baron- no "venom" in that one, at all- it was just too funny not to post. I'd even "zing" myself with it if I could have worked it in !! :)

bill e. goat said...

Baron,

"The real reason I'm upset (about Chrysler BK proceedings), is that large Bankruptcy cases in the second district tend to set precedents for the country and the future.

"So now, every 20bit Eclipse/Etirc in the future will be able to point to the Chrysler 363 sale as a precedent to circumvent creditor's due process, priority rules, arms-length requirements etc. That is the real travesty."

Baron, I can appreciate your concerns. (More detailed response, with supporting, and dissenting, examples to come soon).

I enjoy discussing it- will not try to be as lengthy as previous. (I learned a LOT by doing the research on it, and felt obligated to pass it along- I thought the legal argument (for BK) was enlightening, at least to me- hopefully to others. Regrettably, I think we will have occasion to be familiar with the subject matter of bankruptcy's throughout the year).

(I evaluated the hedge fund position also- and concluded it was simply an attempt at extortion. This is not the a universal conclusion- but in this case, I think it applied. I do not think that this will set any dangerous new precedents ("travesties") - but rather, reinforce existing reasonable ones, which I hope, will indeed enforce prudent consideration of debt holder's rights).

bill e. goat said...

Deep_Blue,
"Best regards."
??
Please stick around- I hope you're not going anywhere !!

(I've noted your enjoyable posts- hope you continue to post).

Fair said...

BEG,

I believe the EASA certified configuration includes a standby HSI to the left or right of the Garmin.

I think once someone acquires the assets and gets going on upgrading the old fleet with the newest enhancements, the owners ought to consider adding in that extra level of safety into their I.P. (now that the design exists and is available) regardless of if they need the rest of the EASA options or not.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,

Regarding immigrants (to the US, or ANY country):

"anyone has to be EXTRA careful with such subject ...think twice before stating a 'good idea' that would be interpreted in the 'wrong way' by any others ..."I'm sorry I was not more precise-
I think indeed my post was interpreted the wrong way.

My intended proposition was not that the US should kick out illegal trespassers (I don't think of them as "immigrants"- that implies they are going to stay).

My proposition was: the US should kick out legal visitors (non-citizens), IF they are on the terrorist watch list. To me, it is absurd to offer the "right to stay" to someone who is expressly being watched for suspicion of involvement with terrorism. What legal obligation does ANY country have to allow a suspected terrorist to stay- the visa process ought to be revised to include an immediate expulsion clause for even suspected criminal involvement- no punishment- just expulsion. Appeal process? Sure- to be pursued from outside the country. Inconvenient? Sure- too bad.

And "suspected" involvement would have some basis behind it, just as it does now to place someone on the "watch list". The burden of disproof would be placed upon the ex-visitor to produce, after he is expelled, from outside the border.

"Innocent until proven guilty" is a right reserved for citizens. What I am proposing is NOT "guilty until proven innocent" (I'm not saying to throw anyone in jail, just revoke their visa- it's just "you are a visitor, and you literally have no right to be here if our national security apparatus considers you a threat"). That seems utterly reasonable, and practical.

The self-regulating mechanism for this would be: we don't want US citizens to be cavalierly thrown out of foreign countries either- so the US national security apparatus would have incentive not to be careless/reckless in determining who is expelled, lest it have undesirable reciprocal effects.

As I said before, I welcome legal immigration, and have no disagreement with unlimited visitation, of any number of visitors. It's good for the economy, and good for international relations. But if someone is suspected of criminal involvement (terrorism, organized crime, drugs, etc), there simply should be no "obligation" to allow them to remain in the country- expel them).

On the other hand, illegal trespassers (without visas or work permits) should be kicked out as well. This is too often interpreted as a strike against legal migrant (not immigrant) farm workers- there are legal provisions for them to be here.

Those who employ illegal trespassers, do so to "buy illegal items", in this case labor. Which deserves the same treatment as those who "but illegal items", like cocaine- confiscate their personal property. Due process? I don't know how it is legally mechanized for drug seizures, but use the same mechanism for illegal trespasser employers. That is arguably has a bigger impact on society than illicit drugs does.

(I'm not advocating legalizing drugs. In fact, I believe there should be much harsher penalties for possessing drugs, not just distributing them. Or do legalize it- but either way, eliminate the inconsistency of possession versus distribution).
------------------------------------

And I don't mean kick them out because they are out of political favor- some of our best ideas of freedom come from visitors- I don't want a political administration to be able to "quash" descent. In this case, it is the "rights of the citizens" to hear the descent (whether from a citizen, or non-citizen), that needs to be defended. But reasonable protection against a undue agitation- admittedly, a sticky matter for the courts to decide- but NOT to be decided with the suspected agitator (or terrorist) in the country- kick 'em out, and let 'em appeal from their home country. (And if the appeal has merit, let 'em back in).
------------------------------------

Interesting cases in point:

Czech Republic bans KKK
and Britain:
Britan bans 22 US citizensand Toady Newt reports:
Several 9/11 terrorist had visa violations

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fair,
(Welcome, if this is your first posting sequence- sorry if I've missed you before).

"I believe the EASA certified configuration includes a standby HSI to the left or right of the Garmin."

Thanks for the info- seems like a darned prudent idea to me too- and all the other OEMs:

Boeing 787 Flight Deck

"Thales supplies the integrated standby flight display "Boeing 787

airsafetyman said...

"if the company had infinite financial resources in post-TC, it would have fixed most of the bugs already."

I don't think the company was capable of even admitting the problems, much less fixing them. The standby indicator is a case in point. The clearly inadaquate brakes, tires, and wheels is another. Or windshields, batteries, the massive failure of the uber-avionics integration, and on and on. The one happy note is that with Vern and Roel both disgraced and out of the picture and the company bankrupt, the airplanes are being looked at by people in large FBOs who are used to maintaining real airplanes. Their experience will prove invaluable in determining if the the mess can be straightened out and at what costs and performance penalities.

RonRoe said...

Deep Blue says:
"I have no idea how an ATP could file a flight plan with his/her name on it as PIC."

Speaking as someone who has done it many times, it's not that hard.

You can do it over the Internet, through various gateways, or call up FSS. In fact, you don't have to be an ATP -- even a Private Pilot can do it.

If you are still struggling with the concepts, the AOPA web site has lots of useful information. You might also ask a CFII for help. Most of them would be glad to give you a hand.

Once you've done it a few times, you'll see that it's really not that hard.

I'm glad that this blog can help folks like you learn more about the wonderful world of flying. If you're still interested, you might go to your nearest airport and see if they offer introductory flights. They're not that expensive, and you might decide you like flying enough to take it up as a hobby!

Best of luck to you in your aviation "career".

airsafetyman said...

"If you are still struggling with the concepts"

I believe the concept is pilot responsibility. Anyone who files hard IFR in this airplane has very questionable judgement. It is a day, VFR-weather airplane, at best, in its current state.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

BEG,

That last solution to illegal immigrant and visiter on the watch list rant was one of the lamest drivel posts we have ever had on this blog.

It is the sort of "black and white", "with us or against us" nonsense which got the US so far up shit creek in the first place.

Every one of those 15 million illegal imigants and other undesirables is an individual human being with their own history and their own reason for being where they are. They represent 15 million shades of grey on a multi dimensional scale which includes terrorists, concert pianists, tomato pickers, murderers, cleaners, truck drivers, estate agents, investment bankers, dealers, etc.

The nasty little secret that your congress long ago worked out was that turning a blind eye to illegal immigrant gives the US a huge competitive advantage. Millions of self selected, highly motivated, highly flexible people working their arses off, doing all the stuff which need doing, which nationals in no rich counrty want to do. The second and third generations become the really powerhouses of your system.

The other nasty secret is that the ones you catch and deport are mostly not the ones you need to be scared of. The really nasty ones will come and go as they please anyway, as they have money/help to bend the system. Better off spend the money to catch them, than send the tomato picker back to Mexicali so he can have another go tommorrow night.

Idiot black and white statements like "I don't know how it is legally mechanized for drug seizures, but use the same mechanism for illegal trespasser employers." are a nice little security blanket, Linus.

How would you like to have "possessing stolen goods" charge brought against you because you had the local car dealership fix your car, and it turns out they employ an illegal immigrant to clean the john.

You know what is weird BEG, about four posts before this drivel, you made the following statements which I thought were some of the best you (as a very valuable contributer here) have contributed.


Or, should I rather say: they were attempting to do things which had repeatedly failed in the past, but this time on an unprecedented scale.

And the result, was an unprecedented financial disaster- a conventional outcome, on an unconventional scale.
That is the end of my Black and white rant :)

FreedomsJamtarts said...

In my experience Pilots (like investment bankers) often discount risk.

Every successful flight is a strong pavlovian conditioning that everything is hunky-dory.

One the one hand we have Baron pointing out no fatals in two years - no problem.

On the other hand you have the known/ strongly suspected delta between the Eclipse as a risk factor and the industry standard risk.

This delta is created by

-known defiencies, such as undersized brakes, no FIKI, No moving map area Nav, A/P disconnects under conditions where the A/P is a real workload reducer, and the suspected risk factors, SW features not published ( cross throttle control), noone providing continued airworthiness support,

-Suspected deficiencies, such as the reported lack of configuration control, reported lack of quality control, reported political intervention, incomplete fatique testing.

It would be great to compare the curves of monthly fleet operation hour for the Ecorpse and Mustang. I would suspect that the Mustang total fleet hours are starting to really run away from the Ecorpse.

Don't forget that the lack of Fiki is a safety benefit if it is adhered to, and a big deficiency if not adhered to.

Black Tulip said...

If the Eclipse were operated in EXPERIMENTAL category wouldn't this better represent its state of development? At least the passengers would get to read a warning.

Beedriver said...

The safety record of the eclipse is a testimony for the pilots not the airplane.

The one thing Wedge did right was insist that the pilots be well trained. they needed to fly to ATP standards and go through extensive training. The EA500 incidents we have hear of ended with no deaths through the skill and ability of the pilots. we hear of screens going blank altitudes resetting etc and no fatal problems.

The airplane is more dangerous than many other airplanes in its class but you cannot fly it if your are not trained well and that makes the difference. many of the fatal aircraft accidents we see out there are due to gross pilot error that is sorted out by the rigorous training the eclipse pilots go through.

Wedge did one thing right

fred said...

freedom :

It is the sort of "black and white", "with us or against us" nonsense which got the US so far up shit creek in the first place

brilliant !

what i was referring to this kind of thing , i my first comment ...

i wonder how many US citizens got it right : Terrorists in Iraq came with the US Army , not the other way round ...
taking the same road (kurdistan) and using the void created by this no-sens "friends or foes" ...


the second point in my comment :

we all have to face it ...
NONE of our respective Govt will fix the Illegal Immigrant prob.

it is NONE of their interests !!

what is the meaning of Illegal =
to have a cheap labor work-force to give a competitive advantage for low jobs and keep the pressure on low-class Legal workers !!

Dave said...

Wedge did one thing rightThat is true, but I think it probably really wasn't his decision. Early on much was made about the cost of insurance and such requirements were probably dictated both by Eclipse's own insurers as well as by the insurances companies for the aircraft.

Niner Zulu said...

Well, I did notice that there were 5 Eclipse jets in the air this morning.

So the fleet isn't entirely grounded...yet.

baron95 said...

WOW!!!!

Five pilots risked putting their names on a flight plan!!!

Unbelievable.

And after their flight, they all still have the number of landings as the same as the number of takeoffs, right?

Wow!!!

And the stock markets are up 6% (.SPX) for the week and 3% (.SPX) for the year.

And 2 banks managed to raise $15B by issuing stock to the public today, just like that.

Incredible. Wow!

But wait....

There is "overwhelming evidence" that EA500s don't fly or when they fly they kill people and that the US economy is history.

Oh, rats, I need to find some medication to feel depressed, cause the real stats are not doing it for me.

Maybe I'll take this Deep Blue pill. Oh, no, wait, that is the horny pill.

Fail again to be depressed.

Oh I know. I'll think about how we are going to pay the debt.

On second thought - forget that. I'll just go contribute to it. Much more fun.

Shane Price said...

Baron,

Be careful.

Black Tulip might feel competition coming on, and retaliate.

Could get very messy....

Shane
PS Good points, well made.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deep Blue said...

B95 and RonRoe and others:

We don't know each other and I rarely engage in confrontation on this blog (or any other). And for good reason: it degrades the communication (all good sport notwithstanding).

But frankly, I can't imagine how adult men could communicate the ways I'm seeing here.

If this is just sporting fun, OK.

If it is about a serious consideration of a highly questionable aircraft, I think a bit more respect is in order.

RonRoe, for you information and the Blog's, I have over 11,000 hours now as a jet transport ATP. I have flown aircraft from a J-3 to the BBJ and nearly everything in between, piston twins included with a perfect safety record.

I highly recommend this site take a more professional approach (all the good fun and enjoyment here notwithstanding)to what appears by the day to be very serious airworthiness issues with the E500.

Thank you and regards.

baron95 said...

Deep Blue - just sporting fun.

Please don't take anything I post too seriously or as a snipe.

Indeed, I do like to read your posts, and find you one of the more well informed contributors.

I was just in a silly mood today - shipped a customer proposal in the nick of time (I hope), and was letting off some steam.

But seriously dude, the sky is NOT falling. Neither are EA500s or the US economy.

Go out tonight - all the cool places will be jam packed with people having a good time.

RonRoe said...

Dear Profound Azure,

I'm glad you perceived that I was just having a bit of "sporting fun" with your post.

I, too, am an ATP with multiple type ratings and thousands of hours. One difference between you and me is that I've never received a dime for flying. I've paid every dime for my training and paid full price for every hour I've ever flown, pistons and turbines alike. Fortunately, my day job pays well, but I've still had to make plenty of sacrifices, both personal and financial, to gain the aviation experience I have.

And, while technically I'm an amateur, I hold Flight Safety Pro Cards that attest to the fact that I maintain a high level of proficiency.

In other words, when I disagree with your position, I am not coming from a position of ignorance. Obviously, you have considerable aviation knowledge as well, but have you ever flown an Eclipse 500? Seen one up close? Seen the pictures in a magazine? :)

Inquiring minds would like to know.

Deep Blue said...

Baron: good advice for all of us; we're out the door... I do miss my native NYC for a night on the town however. Regards.

Deep Blue said...

RonRoe:

Thanks. Yes, I have seen one, sat in one, flown one and ordered one (yikes). I know the company very well and also its senior founding team and have been a supplier.

My hat is off to them, and always has been, for trying. I respect the initial vision. I could only wish the damn thing was a success (along with DayJet). The whole EAC episode is a crying shame.

But, what I know, tells me this airplane needs to be grounded.

Thanks and regards.

RonRoe said...

Deep Blue,

Thank you for the prompt and courteous reply.

Best regards,

Ron

fred said...

But seriously dude, the sky is NOT falling. Neither are EA500s or the US economy.sincerely , i wish you to never fully wake-up ...

US economy is NOT set to fall completely ...

it is just loosing the biggest part of its leadership ...

due to the bipolar aspect of the US mentality , lately

are you going to be grown-up enough to assume it , that is already much more doubtful !

(funnily enough , this kind of talk was held in 250A.D. in some other part of world , they believed to be essential for the world to remain what they were ... do you remember their name ? seems nothing has really changed in over 2000 years ...!)

FlightCenter said...

Baron95,

Is this the medication you are looking for?

Despondex

WhyTech said...

"Is this the medication you are looking for? "

This great! Not sure that there is enough of this stockpiled to help B95!

Shane Price said...

Snippet Time

From: David Green
Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 8:07 PM
Subject: EOG Member Update

Dear EOG Member,

This is another update on what is happening in the bankruptcy and our efforts to acquire the assets of Eclipse.

We are continuing our very close communication with the Bankruptcy Trustee. Our intention was to have the trustee accept a fair bid for the assets by the EOG as a starting point for the auction/bidding process (what is called a “stalking horse” bid). Then we would know the amount that the note holders and trustee would accept to start the process, and we would prepare for any “overbids” on the auction date set by the trustee. That is why we asked you to be ready to “go hard” on your escrow.

At this time, the trustee has not accepted our opening offer. We now believe from discussions with people familiar with the process that the trustee has received indications of a bid in excess of the amount we offered. We do not know who the entity is or what amount they might bid. Therefore it remains important that we be ready to join the bidding auction once it becomes official and we know who is bidding, how much they are bidding, and when the overbids will be accepted. We may have only a short time to decide on our final bidding strategy, get the necessary information to you and then have you confirm in a timely manner your intention to have your money “go hard” for the bid.

Because of this short time, we will be sending you the documents needed in a sequential fashion as we have them prepared. The first document should be ready to be sent to you by Monday, and it is the new formation agreement for the EOG LLC entity that will buy the assets.

Again we want to emphasize that even with your consent for your membership contribution or bridge loan to go hard, no money (other than the $2500 expense) will be taken out of escrow unless we actually win the bid and are closing on the assets. You money will be returned if we do not actually purchase the assets.

While we have flexibility in our potential bidding strategy at auction, the more owners who join the EOG and the more owners who offer to provide bridge loans, the more power we will have to place a winning bid. Obviously if an entity bids an inflated sum for the assets, we will not bid. Our efforts have always been driven by the strategy to protect the owners in the event another bidder with a rational and advantageous plan for the owners does not step forward. That strategy has remained consistent. We will do everything that makes good business sense to either acquire the assets ourselves at a reasonable price or have another viable entity that we can support acquire the assets. Your support in influencing other owners to join our efforts and if possible participate in the bridge loan is greatly appreciated.

If another entity makes an unreasonable bid for the assets and wins, then the EOG in consultation with our members will play a forceful role in doing whatever is necessary to demonstrate the strength and determination of the owners for a fair outcome.

We value your support and participation greatly. We believe strongly that our efforts continue to have a very positive effect for every owner. You can feel very proud, as we do, to be part of this process, serving your fellow owners, and bringing the full potential of our Eclipse aircraft closer to reality.



Sincerely,

Eclipse Owners Group Steering Committee


Looks like the EOG have run into a small 'bump' in the road. These things happen, and I'm sure they'll recover, in time.

Unless, that is, someone else slides inside them with a 'take out' bid....

Shane

Dave said...

That is why we asked you to be ready to “go hard” Eclipse 2.0 selling Viagra. This looks like a viable business plan!

Obviously if an entity bids an inflated sum for the assets, we will not bid. But what if any bid is an inflated sum?

Dave said...

Why politicians shouldn't go around picking favorites:
Chrysler advises customers with pending lemon law complaints to file a proof of claim form with the Bankruptcy Court and join the ranks of the automaker's unsecured creditors.

"In that case, you'll be lucky to get pennies on the dollar," Simanovsky said.

Representatives of consumer groups met with the Obama administration's auto task force this week to discuss lemon law problems and other issues stemming from the Chrysler bankruptcy and the restructuring of General Motors Corp., which also could wind up in Bankruptcy Court.

"They were open to listening to us, but I do think that the consumer is not a focus of the auto task force at this point," said Linda Sherry of Consumer Action, a San Francisco-based consumer advocacy group. "The task force was put in place to do other things."
This is why politicians should stay out of it. Going to bat for the UAW but not going to bat for the Chrysler's customers doesn't exactly look good.

WhyTech said...

"Chrysler advises customers with pending lemon law complaints to file a proof of claim form with the Bankruptcy Court "

IOW, the middle finger salute! Sure makes one want to run out an buy a Chrysler product! (Something I have never done and likely never will do in my lifetime.) Wonder if the UAW has considered how secure jobs will be if no one is buying the cars & trucks? What are these people thinking?

baron95 said...

FlightCenter said... Baron95,
Is this the medication you are looking for?
-----------------------

Hehehehe. Awesome. Thanks FC. It can't hurt to try. Cool link.

baron95 said...

I think, that Americans, maybe, just maybe, will stay away from Chrysler and GM on principle alone. As in not wanting to reward a company and its employees that are using govmt money to compete in unfair terms with Ford et al.

Chrysler is offering $6,000.00 rebates on most 2009 models. That is using gvmt money to put negative pricing pressure on cars.

How is that fair to Ford and the others and theirs employees and there investors?

Shameless. Americans should make it clear that they won't buy products from these companies.

baron95 said...

Thanks for the update, Shane.

Looks like they think the end game will be soon.

Dave said...

As in not wanting to reward a company and its employees that are using govmt money to compete in unfair terms with Ford et al.Actually I think it gives Ford et al an advantage when you go and send a message that customers don't matter. Just look at the history of Eclipse with all its subsidized pricing, but Eclipse has now become radioactive because of how customers were treated. Ford isn't being run to show off to and appease the interest groups and voters for politicians, so Ford has a big advantage.

I think as time goes on its becoming clearer and clearer not take money from the government nor to do business with those who have or else you'll lose control if you're that business and get shafted if you're not a special interest group of whoever is in office at the time. I see this much like how I've seen with Eclipse with the results being that you scare customers, suppliers and others away. With all these businesses that have taken government money who now say that they can get additional financing in the private sector, I think what has happened with Chrysler only will serve to scare private money away in not wanting to get involved, but companies like Ford don't have this disadvantage if they need additional financing.

baron95 said...

I don't know, Dave.

If Hyundai used a massive Korean $$$ gift (as the US gvmt has already testified they don't expect to be paid by Chrysler) to offer their vehicles at $6,000 below cost, you can bet that the UAW and the democrats would be yelling "dumping" and unfair competition and wanting to impose sanctions immediately.

This is just bad policy, and potentially illegal as in govmt subsidized dumping.

I hope some Ford dealer somewhere files a suit against Chrysler and the US gvmt for dumping. In the case of the auto task force, we could probably pursue some RICO statutes, since they are clearly coordinating (aka conspiring) the management of GM and Chrysler.

That is when we need the lawyers with testicular volume to stand up to the chief.

WhyTech said...

"Americans should make it clear that they won't buy products from these companies."

IMO, this will be quite clear via the sales numbers well before the end of this year.

Black Tulip said...

"...the more owners who join the EOG and the more owners who offer to provide bridge loans, the more power we will have to place a winning bid."

If the Kool Aid is administered intra-veinously don't you miss the wonderful taste?

fred said...

But what if any bid is an inflated sum? Dave , this is very fine works of yours ...

it's exactly what what i meant (with freedom ...) on the potential buying of assets ...

a single and symbolic $ should be enough !

apart from the engines (matter that can be addressed directly with with the producer)

what is to be kept ?

the very poor execution of about everything ?

The NavioNg ?

no one now can be 101% sure it can be saved from the wreckage , unless of more time and (considerably) more $ ...!

all the issue on Fpj ?

the brakes , the wheel-pit , the Phostrex , etc ... etc...

so the multi-millions $ questions :

who want to make Roel&Al a bit of the fortune wasted ?

Who want to buy stuff only to find out that without adding some tens or hundreds millions more : it is useless ?

who want to wait for a time X , when all problems , misfit and defect will be fixed ? (this time won't happen in our lifetime with normal Eco. settings, IMO)


so on this , Dave , you're perfectly right ...

ONE $ seems almost too much , already ...

fred said...

unfair competition and wanting to impose sanctions immediately. but this is EXACTLY what you proposed on keep the debts rolling ...

i know : it leave a bad taste in mouth ...

When a N'Guyen Than loc or a mohamed ben Mohamed come to your house , write down any fantasy numbers on a roll of toilet-paper and actually buy your house , with you having no possibility to say NO ...

it leaves a quite bad taste in mouth ..

but the clock is tickling , the world is changing ...

bill e. goat said...

(Catch up time !!)

"righting imagined economic wrongs by those nasty rich people"

"Every one of those 15 million illegal immigrants and other undesirables is an individual human being"

Well, I seem to be comfortably in the middle (or at least, in the middle) of vilifying the rich, and vilifying the poor. Once again, I have achieved a happy median (or at least, a median).

I will also work hard to vilify those in the middle, as I don't want to leave anyone out !)

bill e. goat said...

Quoting my favorite blogger (me- of course !! :)
May 7, 2009 10:06 PM:
"On the other hand, illegal trespassers (without visas or work permits) should be kicked out as well. This is too often interpreted as a strike against legal migrant (not immigrant) farm workers- there are legal provisions for them to be here."

(I specifically wanted to clarify that I was not advocating persecuting low legal income migrant farm workers).

And in THE SAME post, I also stated:
"As I said before, I welcome legal immigration, and have no disagreement with unlimited visitation, of any number of visitors. It's good for the economy, and good for international relations."

I am agreeable to discuss immigration, both legal and illegal, from an economics standpoint- one of my favorite topics on our wonderful blog during brief periods of slow news on Eclipse is economics and politics.

I am also aware of the sociological impacts, but it is difficult to effectively elaborate over a blog. (I have seen the challenge of subsistence-level farming (at best), and millionaire comfort, in my close family, so I am familiar with a relatively wide range of perspectives. Some would evaluate my "socialist" bent as anti-wealth, or a grudge against millionaires- logical guess, but completely wrong. In fact, my more affluent relatives are even more "socialist" than I am, and my less affluent relatives are more "red state" by far. (The apparent contradiction in that, is investigated in a book by What's the Matter with Kansas, written by a Kansan btw).

But- shockingly- the social aspect I find to be a bit outside the blog. I apologize if I've offended anyone- such offense was erroneously perceived, I believe, as I do have an appreciation for the plight of the impoverished.

But that won't keep me from two following posts trying to correct misimpressions regarding:
1) legality issues re: immigration
2) civil liberties

I am grateful I live in a country, one of many, where civil liberties are "liberal", NOT "conservative". I would urge one to consider the implications of that terminology.

I usually cringe when I hear those two terms- but it occurs to me, civil liberties is the ONLY place where they are really useful- every other usage is a sociological (wealth distribution), economics (tax code), and tribalism/"branding" application; rather than a strictly theory of government, application.

bill e. goat said...

FJT,
"That...was one of the lamest drivel posts we have ever had on this blog.

(Boy, wait until you finish with THIS one !! .)

Well, it was one of my longest, and most irrelevant- but I am disappointed you have forgotten some of my previous ones which were even more lame.

"Every one of those 15 million illegal immigrants...

Is...ILLEGAL. That is my point.

(Actually, the point I more wanted to convey was about limiting violence-inspiring hate speech from foreign provocateurs/nut cases, and expelling them (we have enough domestic ones) but not otherwise limiting dissenting foreign speakers- see following post).

But back to the topic of this post:
-----------------------------------

"Every one of those 15 million illegal immigrants...

Is...ILLEGAL. That is my point.

That really IS black and white- there is NO ambiguity- a visitor to the US (or Mexico, or Canada, or China, or Russia, or Japan, or Israel, or Bolivia, or etc.) REALLY IS either visiting legally, or illegally. There simply is NO gray in that- it is as simple as simple as anything possibly can be.

Maybe one has an agenda to increase the socioeconomic, education, and health of people in general. That's great- me too.

And maybe one has an agenda to increase the socioeconomic, education, and health of a specific nationality or ethnicity of a specific group of people. That's great- me too.

But I don't advocate doing it by allowing an individual, or groups of individuals, to break the law.

If you have agenda to support illegal immigration, you have an agenda to support selective enforcement of the law.

The same as drug dealers and tax cheaters and environmental polluters.

Selling drugs, cheating on taxes, and illegally immigrating are all ways to achieve the advances I mentioned. And I am NOT saying those three are connected in any other fashion other than the fact that they are ALL EXPLICITLY illegal. And don't try to interpret that as anything else, because to do so is to distort my premise.

"They represent 15 million shades of grey on a multi dimensional scale which includes terrorists, concert pianists, tomato pickers, murderers, cleaners, truck drivers, estate agents, investment bankers, dealers, etc."

Some dimensions have gray scales: how well can they play a piano?

And some are black and white: is an immigrant here legally, or not? And are they on the terrorist watch list, or not? Those are NOT gray scales; they are simple, yes-or-no, black-or-white items.

"The nasty little secret that your congress long ago worked out was that turning a blind eye to illegal immigrant gives the US a huge competitive advantage."

It's not secret to me, and it's no competitive advantage, because it does not make products we export either better, or cheaper, because illegal immigrants are almost exclusively engaged in domestic products and services.

But it does raise profits for those who employ them, and suppress wages for citizens AND for legal immigrants. (Some would argue that it is offset by lower costs of goods and services, others would argue the aggregate cost to society for health care, education, and prisons outweighs that- but neither is the point I am arguing).

You are correct- congress did turn a blind eye, and acted corruptly in ignoring the problem. (and the public largely turns a blind eye to congress doing that, because as Beedriver says, our "event horizon" for consequences is largely 12 months or less, and we ignore the aggregate cost to society and the corruption of the political and rule of law, and focus on cheap tomatoes and lawn services).

It was corruption the part of both parties: Democrats kept quiet because many of their "core" acquiesced on humanitarian grounds. Republicans kept quiet because many of their "core" benefited from lower labor rates. But both parties refused to change the law, because the discourse involved would indeed expose the aggregate costs, and refused to support enforcing the law, and hence endorsed lawlessness. (The overreaction which Beedriver mentions did change things minutely after 9/11, but the effect was modest compared to the effects of xenophobia, and economic self interest when the economy declined).

The press has been largely quiet on the issue for the same reason- neither the "liberal" nor "conservative" press wanted to alienate it's core constituency. Instead, they have focus on the "entertainment" value, human misery of impoverished immigrants on one hand, and the shocking horror of tomatoes that might cost an extra penny apiece on the other.

"The other nasty secret is that the ones you catch and deport are mostly not the ones you need to be scared of."

That's no secret to me either- and I agree with you on the way we are doing things now- I am not afraid of the people being deported. They are mostly just average people, probably a harder worker than I am. Probably a better person than I am. Am I afraid of them? No. Am I afraid they are an economic burden on the US? Yes. Am I afraid of the greater consequences of government selectively enforcing the law? Yes.

"The really nasty ones will come and go as they please anyway, as they have money/help to bend the system."

If you are saying organized gang members and drug dealers will come back, I agree- those are the ones we should not just deport, but criminally prosecute and hold in US detention. The others, just send back to the border, if you are referring to illegal Mexicans.

"Better off spend the money to catch them, than send the tomato picker back to Mexicali so he can have another go tomorrow night."

FINALLY, we get to EXACTLY what was my point: not prosecuting illegal immigrants (for instance: a tomato picker), but rather:

Prosecuting the tomato farm owner.

THAT is the way to stop illegal immigration.

The cost to society? More expensive tomatoes.

The alternative? Selective law enforcement, which is corruption.

If you want more tomato pickers to be allowed to legally immigrate, change the laws. But don't break the laws- that's criminal.

Tax rate too high? Change the tax laws, but don't cheat on taxes- that's criminal.

Want to smoke dope? Change the laws, but don't ignore them- that's criminal.

"Idiot black and white statements like 'I don't know how it is legally mechanized for drug seizures, but use the same mechanism for illegal trespasser employers.' are a nice little security blanket, Linus."

(While I do not deny being an idiot .) - I expressly do NOT think that is an idiotic statement- rather, it is a considered one, and I think it is a VERY pragmatic, and effective, one.

Security blanket? Yes, enforcement of the law does provide security. Non-selective enforcement does an even better job, for two reasons: 1) it is more comprehensive, and 2) it enhances respect for the law as a whole.

A government which has laws, but then selectively enforces them, is by definition, corrupt. I am against corruption, and want those who break the law, punished. (My main argument is NOT to "punish" illegal immigrants, just deport them. But rather, punish those who literally bribe them to come here, who pay them to break the immigration law.

A country is either based on the rule of law and obedience to the law. Or is is based on selective law enforcement, and corruption.

Two pick a nominal example of each:

The United States, and Mexico.
Or Canada, and Haiti.
Or Japan, and Somalia.
Or Norway and Iraq.

Corruption and poverty are inextricably linked. I do not want the United States to become impoverished.

Therefore, I do not want the United States to become corrupt.

Therefore, I want ALL the laws to be enforced (not just selectively).

Want to increase legal immigration? Change the law to allow it. But don't say it's a matter of "grayness". The NUMBER of legal immigrants we allow in is a matter of "greyness", but whether one is here legally, or illegal, is not a matter of "grayness".

Want to improve the lives of people in the United States? Improve the United States.

Want to improve the lives of Mexicans or Somalians or Iraqis? Improve Mexico or Somalia or Iraq.

Again- am I against immigration ??- that is NOT the issue. (But fyi, I am in favor of allowing skilled labor in permanently (doctors, engineers, machinists, chemists), in numbers which are legally codified, and which can be raised or lowered, based on economic conditions. For unskilled labor, I am in favor of temporary work permits. But my point is not who we should let in, or for how long- the point I'm making, regarding immigration, is legality.

The issue is, I'm in favor of legal behavior, whether it's immigration, or tax enforcement, or aircraft certification.

"How would you like to have 'possessing stolen goods' charge brought against you because you had the local car dealership fix your car, and it turns out they employ an illegal immigrant to clean the john."

That is the completely the wrong argument- The correct action in that case would be for the car dealer to have his business seized instead.

On the other hand, let's take a similar case, where I take my car to a mechanic, whom I knew was here illegally, and employed him to fix my car. In which case, my car should be confiscated. REALLY.

(Unenforceable ?, impractical ?, puts the business owner at risk ? Guess again- there is a SIMPLE solution, if one looks for it- have the employees screened by a bonded agency. If they make a mistake (or more likely, take a bribe), and certify an illegal worker, and the car dealership has his agency seized? Simple- he just collects from the bonded employment screening agency. It really is that simple).

Think about it- I believe this would have a very dramatic effect on the number of illegal mechanics in the US. "But it would bump up car repair prices" ?? Yeah, and it would eliminate the unfair competition to shops employing legal mechanics. Gaining unfair advantage through breaking the law- is ILLEGAL, and corrupt.

Going after employers of illegal trespassers is the way to stop them from being employed, which is the way to stop illegal trespassing.
Hire an illegal trespasser crew to roof your house? You loose your house. How to prevent that from happening accidentally? Business licenses, and verified identification. No more of this "look the other way because I get a good deal" stuff.

"Millions of self selected, highly motivated, highly flexible people working their arses off, doing all the stuff which need doing, which nationals in no rich country want to do."

Hey, I don't want to go to work either- and I'll do the least amount of work, for the most amount of money, that I can. And that is EXACTLY true for immigrants, whether legal or illegal. The difference is, a legal immigrant is NOT breaking the law to do so.

I'm not against medical doctors, or PhD's, or concert pianists, or service workers, or tomato pickers coming into the country legally. Not at all.

"The second and third generations become the really powerhouses of your system."

That is not the issue. I'm talking about legality, so let's look at that statement in the legal context- do children of those behaving criminally benefit society. Well, the sons and daughters of drug dealers are often very substantial contributors do society as well. But that doesn't mean we should permit drug dealing, unless the laws are changed to allow it.

(I'm NOT saying illegal immigrants are drug dealers; rather I'm saying that is selective enforcement of the law is wrong).

If you want to comment on the work ethic of immigrants, legal or illegal, that is fine, but that is not related to the legal issue which I was addressing.

"You know what is weird BEG, about four posts before this drivel, you made the following statements which I thought were some of the best you (as a very valuable contributor here) have contributed."

(Thanks! But like I said, I'm disappointed you've forgotten my earlier, even lamer posts!
.)

WhyTech said...

"Is...ILLEGAL. That is my point."

And an excellent point! As a bottom line oriented individual, I would summarize your 5000 word post as follows:

"Enforce the law or change the law. Period."

(Do we need a law limiting blog posts to 200 words or less? ;-) )

fred said...

"Enforce the law or change the law. Period."

yes , absolutely !

but you should add with this :

"don't blame the ones using the law , blame the ones who made the law"

since in a "normal" democratic system , we are the ones who vote to elect the laws makers ...
all have an indirect responsibility !

i am TOTALLY against skilled staying for ever in host countries :

it has ONLY one effect : the country of origin in poverty , corruption and shamble ...

at the same time , each one "succeeding" in a developed country going back to his origin country , always project an "Image" of wealth ...

so for each one being in that case , you have hundreds or thousands that fall in the trap of "getting rich in other land"

when i go to Morocco , i see this all the times :
Moroccan families living and working in European Union going ... usually the car has about twice its own weight on the gallery (roof) of gift , things and stuff ...

so when they are back to their village = what peoples living in village see is that the ones working on "the other side" are so rich , they can afford to offer TV or washing-machine , each they come ...

what they don't see : the ones bringing the gift are living in quite scarce conditions to save enough to buy those gifts !!

so what do they want ?

all go on the other side , where life is easy , money flow like rivers ...

their fault ?

NO , our fault !! when we show our wealth , they believe easily we are all wealthy !!

it is a very short sighted calculation to make them dream , and to some extent , i would be the first one to "TRY" a new set of rules :

anyone can come freely , they cannot use the social benefit , they cannot live in shacks , they have to obey the law or get kicked , they can bring the family only after XX years of paying tax and obeying the rules ...

most of them (i would think) would come , see , try to make ends meet for a few months ...

after a while , they would understand , there is nothing "Golden" waiting for them ...
go back to their own country and spread the word "Nothing good for us , there !"

but we are proud

Dave said...

It's not secret to me, and it's no competitive advantage, because it does not make products we export either better, or cheaper, because illegal immigrants are almost exclusively engaged in domestic products and services.

But it does raise profits for those who employ them, and suppress wages for citizens AND for legal immigrants.
I've always been amused at how both the Democrats and the Republicans (I'm talking about politicians) handle illegal immigration. They each have reasons for not wanting to fully enforce illegal immigration laws. The Democrats suppress the wages of those they are supposedly working for while the Republicans are soft on crime/terrorism. This might end up changing eventually as the electorate changes - more and more people are fed up with the two main political parties and logitudinally more and more people are either indentifying with third parties or no party at all. Now that border drug wars between rival dealers is spilling over to the US, that might force some action. I live in an area with heavy agriculture, so this is a big issue.

WhyTech said...

"don't blame the ones using the law , blame the ones who made the law"

I do, but I am apparently in the minority on this point because we keep re-electing these idiots.

bill e. goat said...

WT,
"Do we need a law limiting blog posts to 200 words or less?".

To make amends, I will post a short response, in an attempt to bring my "average" down:

yes !!

:0)

(sorry for the length of the previous one !!)

WhyTech said...

"an attempt to bring my "average" down:"

A positive step - brought the average down to 2500 words!

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,

"I am TOTALLY against skilled staying for ever in host countries : it has ONLY one effect : the country of origin in poverty , corruption and shamble"

Hmmm. I agree- I feel it is wrong for the US to "steal" doctors and nurses from developing nations. (We do so, because it is cheaper than us building more medical schools for doctors, and it "helps" (?) suppress the cost of nursing staff).

I heard a radio article about software programmers and engineers in India, who are having visa problems getting into the US with the down economy. Odd, I don't hear India wanting to limit their travel (maybe they do), I suppose they figure the Indians will want to return eventually anyway, due to family ties, and being able to come home, and use the technology they've acquired to start new companies, and employee fellow countrymen.

From a US standpoint, I'm happy to have anyone one come in, temporarily or permanently, if they "bring the average up"- they have more education, and earn more money, than the average American.

On the other hand, I am happy to have an infinite number of lower-income tourists come and visit- to see our fine country (and spend their fine money! :). But to come here an work, that's fine too. But to send that money home? Not so happy with that, the fact is, a low income earner, who sends a portion of his income home, is less of a contributor to the US than a low income earner, who spends all of his earnings in the USA.

I favor work permits for those with below average education and income, and no accompaniment by family remembers. That is a harsh life; and I don't say it to "punish" the immigrant. The fact is, the social cost out weights the benefit. If we had excess money, then that is a charity we could afford, if we chose to do so. But states and federal budgets are in the red, and struggle to provide social services to citizens. To accommodate illegals, has the direct and measurable effect of lowering the quality and quantity of services to citizens. Again, it's a charity- not a legal obligation.

Some want to make it a moral obligation. Well, I agree- I believe we really DO have a moral obligation to help our fellow man. Go do social work in Mexico, on your own money, not on the taxpayer's money. Or give to charities which support that fine work.

But to make that moral obligation a legal obligation? Fine- let's send 10 % of our doctors, teachers, lawyers, and police officers to Mexico. We'll pay them full salary, and they will live in Mexico, and provide services there. The cost to the US taxpayer is the same. Think that would go very far, politically? No, because we'd see the impact immediately. But it is the same financial impact, either way.

bill e. goat said...

Hi WT,
On most days, I aspire to reach "average" !!
I don't always make it', but it's important to have a goal!
.)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Airplane.

Been a while, someone needed to use the word.

Carry on.

fred said...

I'm happy to have anyone one come in, temporarily or permanently, if they "bring the average up"-i think it was a british survey that has demonstrated one fact:

when you have a big influx of highly skilled foreigners in your homeland , the "Locals" tend to lower drastically in quality ...

some call it the "we are so great , why bother ?" effect ...

if you read the blog carefully , you will see that some developed the syndrome , already !

fred said...

airplane ???

what is that new concept ??? ;-)

(sorry again ...)

baron95 said...

CW, the health of GA and Biz Av is directly connected with the economic sentiment of individuals and corporations.

The EA500 story "could" have turned out differently, with yet another round of $500M or so "invested", if it hadn't been for the quadruple overreactive strikes:
- Buffoons from GM/Chrysler being put on the defensive by congress over their use of biz jets.
- Financial/Credit "crisis"
- Artificial high oil prices stint.
- Endless delays in most aircraft developments of late from EA500 to H4000 to 787.

The economy and credit is on the mend. Oil is cheap again for the foreseeable future. The buffoons will all be forgotten soon with Wagoneer gone and Nardelirious about to be gone.

Now, lets finish the freaking plane projects.

For crying out loud.

Why is it that in the slide ruler days we could design incredible planes like U2 in a matter of months?

Why is it that in the IBM360 days we could go from idea to man on the moon in less time than Airbus took to complete the A380?

Why is it that Boeing could do the 707 in 3 years, the 747 in 4 and get them just right, yet, with all the freaking computer modeling, CATIA, CFD, etc they can't even get one freaking 787 in the air after years?

What the heck is going on with aviation?

We have Airbus and Boeing, scared of pulling the trigger on updating their 20 year-old narrow bodies. Screwing up their widebody execution.

Meanwhile, every other industry, from electronics, to autos, to oceanliner building has accelerated development cycles by huge amounts.

I'm so disappointed.

The EA500 saga is, unfortunately, par for the course in aviation. Failed (Adam, Dornier, etc) and delayed (Skycatcher, 787, 4000, A380) projects became the norm.

Proper execution Phenom, Mustang, are now the exception.

How sad.

WhyTech said...

"Airplane."

Helicopter.

Been a while, someone needed to use the word.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,

"when you have a big influx of highly skilled foreigners in your homeland , the 'Locals' tend to lower drastically in quality ..."a) Native Americans might disagree
b) Antibellum whites would protest
c) Antibellum blacks would concur
d) "On most days, I aspire to reach 'average' !!"
------------------------------

Fred, I think you, Shane, Julius, and all our other European friends (I am not sure where everyone "hails from"- I am sure there are some other non-US contributors) indeed "bring up our average" here !

(As do the EA500 owners, although they are even more rare breed of late !)

Dave said...

"You don't need banks and bondholders to make cars," said one administration official.Hopefully whoever said that wasn't involved with Chrysler and never gets involved in any business. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me given how Chrslyer's customers don't matter either.

bill e. goat said...

Hi FJT and Fred,
(re: free speech principals, I think):

The larger point I wanted to make, before our detour into illegal immigration, was the my post on May 7, 2009, 10:06 PM:

"My proposition was: the US should kick out legal visitors (non-citizens), IF they are on the terrorist watch list."

-Please note: "IF they are on the terrorist watch list"

I believe FJT, and perhaps others, heard something I didn't say, and commented:

"It is the sort of 'black and white', 'with us or against us' nonsense which got the US so far up shit creek in the first place."

I believe something was inferred, along the lines of the well-worn, and to me offensive and brutish, "America, love it or leave it".

But that is not what I said, and not what I think). That is mixing apples and oranges (which perhaps by poor construct, I contributed to):

1) "black and white"
2) "with us or against us"

Those items are often combined, when addressing "patriotism". My intended message could not be more diametrically opposed to how I think my post was interpreted.

1) re: "black and white". Yes, I think immigration is a "black and white" issue- one is either a legal immigrant, or an illegal one. I still believe that, and it is in no way a gray matter to me. (I don't have enough gray matter to go around anyway).

Either I offended some sensibilities on that topic (as I do on most other topics, but no more intentionally that in other cases); or worded my post very poorly (as I do on most other topics, but no more intentionally that in other cases), for "black and white" to have associated that with a sentiment of:

2)"with us or against us".

Which, I presume, is a reference to G.W.'s bluster regarding a coalition of those- seeking-US-foreign-aid-by-pretending-that-they-support-us-in-Iraq.

My intended focus was of licensing hate speech by non-citizens within the United States, and allowing domestic terrorism threats to go unaddressed.

This is representative of the domestic case which I had in mind:
Omar Abdel-Rahman

I though everyone would appreciate the implication, and went so far as to offer examples that other countries do not allow foreigners to come in and engage in hate speech and activities (or at least keep track of their visas- even if they don't do anything about it), by giving three examples:

1) Visiting U.S. KKK agitator kicked out of Czech Republic

2) visiting U.S. religious intolerance group kicked out of Britain

3) visiting 9/11 hijackers with visa violations, and FBI field agents investigating them, being allowed to stay in the USA.

I did NOT say, nor imply, anything about citizens, or foreign visitors, or legal (or for that matter, illegal) immigrants being "with us" or "against us".

My intention was, that we should not allow visiting non-citizens to make hate speeches or plot terrorism while on US soil, with the knowledge of the government- instead, kick them out.

And please note I expressly added:

"And I don't mean kick them out because they are out of political favor- some of our best ideas of freedom come from visitors- I don't want a political administration to be able to "quash" dissent. In this case, it is the "rights of the citizens" to hear the dissent (whether from a citizen, or non-citizen), that needs to be defended."

What I did not say, and it surely did not need to be said, was that if I approve of foreign visitors expressing such dissident views that the administration might want to kick them out for political expediency, that I must surely approve of citizens being able to express that same dissent.

I think skimming (understandably) is the only way that could possibly have been misconstrued into a "black or white, for us or against us" message.

In fact, in my earlier post (May 06, 9:34 PM), I stated:

"The super bureaucracy is named "Homeland" security- that is just so over the top Nazi-ish, I am both shocked and offended- yet the press is totally oblivious to any connotations."
-and-
"All that said, I am glad we do have good security on the airlines. But I heard on the radio today, that there are over 1 million people on the "terrorist watch list"- that is just utterly insane- better to take the TSA budget and do some real investigation."

My thoughts were NOT that we have too many foreigners here; rather, it was we have too many people under surveillance- I would think most (but not all) of those under surveillance are some sort of visitor. If they are a threat list, then don't continue to "watch and wait", (we watched and waited with the 9/11 hijackers- mostly, just waited- stupidly)- but rather, just expel them. Not because they are foreigners, but because:

a) having one million people on the list is a ridiculously impossible number to do effective surveillance on, if they are truly a terrorism threat. Spreading resources that thin, mean ineffective surveillance of the REAL threats (why not just kick them out too- if they are suspect? No, do what the real FBI used to do- monitor and legally gather evidence which can support criminal prosecution.

-and-

b) having one million people under surveillance is just too much of a "police state" for me. Remember the book 1984.
("The novel has become famous for its portrayal of pervasive government surveillance and control, and government's increasing encroachment on the rights of the individual.")
-----------------------------------

I also posted this -perhaps it was not well worded- please consider it with regard to what I just wrote:

"And change the laws (if necessary) to kick out foreigners if they are on the "watch list". I am very happy to have folks visit- and I'm glad to have them stay and become citizens, if they are following the legal process to become one."

"But we are gutless -and brainless- to treat temporary visitors as entitled. Kick their sorry asses out if there is ANY doubt- visiting the US is NOT a "right", it is a privilege. As it is in every other country."

(Again- please consider I said that in terms legal visitors, who have been "targeted" for surveillance by the national security apparatus, and I mention in association with hate speech, not political dissent, and not illegal immigration- my intended point was, being a legal immigrant or visitor, should NOT "entitle" them to the right of hate speech, whereas being a citizen, does entitle one to do that- however loathsome it might be, but it IS an entitlement of citizens).

If you like, please re-read what I originally posted, without assumptions, and see if you come to the same conclusion as before. (If so, I worded things very poorly indeed, and I apologize for that).

If one thinks I have a disdain for civil liberties and political dissent, they could not be more wrong.
-----------------------------------

The culture of surveillance is what I objected to, with the terrorist watch list being over one million. Such a voluminous project is reminiscent of:

Joe McCarthy
(Hmmm, died of complications of alcoholism, when 48, and still in office- that explains a lot...)

"Over the course of Hoover's tenure, the FBI collected files on hundreds of thousands of persons he (Hoover) deemed suspicious or radical."
"Invasion of Privacy", by Kevin M. Keenan
(Now personally, I think good 'ole J. Edgar meant well, although he probably didn't look that good in a dress).

"There are more than 135,000 Committees for the Defence of the Revolution (CDRs) in Cuba. "With the help of the CDRs, we know who is who and who does what", explains Ruben Perez, Deputy Manager of the CDRs."
LiveLeak, Cuba - "Neighborhood vigilantes" - Jan.2007
("Over 8 million members" -in a country of 11 million).

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Bill,

Is this what you do with your Sundays? Seriously guy.

bill e. goat said...

Hi EPx,
Actually, it was what I did on Saturday, but was too tired to proof read it until today. Just think how much worse it would have been if I hadn't waited !
.)

fred said...

Billy :

to write your clarification honors you ...

i understand quite well your concern about (needed VS unneeded) surveillance !

on the 9/11 drama , may i point out that the French secret services (DGSE) gave to their american counterpart a file documented on what was going to be the attacks in their form ,meaning , goals ,aspects ,etc , without precise location or/and precise date ...

it seems no one reacted then , may be because they couldn't believe that a simple relation between different men could produce better results than multi-billions hardware ...
(one of the big failure of CIA prior 9/11 , humans being developing relations with other human being produce a lot more results when in need of sensible data ...technology is a help , not an answer !Echelon is a fine toy , does it serve as it is supposed to do , 9/11 prove the opposite = very simple to trick such system :bury them under masses of informations , some true , some half-true , some false = not a single VALID data will be available on due time ! )

past is past , what did happen was a tragedy !

i would be very concerned on "WHO decide Who is on the watch list and for WHAT"

in that respect , i would think your Security measures are only a show for the public attention ...

if i would be to do some mischief in USA (I am NOT, don't worry) :

would you think that i would be stupid enough to enter by one of the big airport ? where security is tight ?

or by some of the many kilometers of unguarded border with Canada ?

or by one of the lake , serving as border between the 2 countries ? (Michigan lake being a good example)

or (in the case of a structured organization) just bribe someone to look in the other direction at the needed time?

so you see having a watch-list might be something , but IMO it is absolutely worthless as a "definite tool"...

at same time , i understand that if you are on the watch-list : you can still enter the country ? or stay in it ??

what the need for such a list , then ?
(this is where this and illegal immigration join : if you want to do something about : you better forget about your humanity-feelings ... or do something in order to NOT have to expel them !)

as i wrote before , such items are mainly for Public Attention , to give the impression to tax-payers their money is well spent to protect them ...

your examples are quite funny to me , i would almost think , in E.U. we show a lot less but act a lot more ...

i can give you an other example : A CNN (or Fox-News , don't remember) team was covering a students demonstration (CPE was the name of the reform they were against) ...
the demonstration was peaceful (it is most of times, frenchs are barbarous wild animals but quite peaceful... ;-) ) so to get "something worth" in the little box (accordingly to what US citizens may think of France) one journalist had the idea of actually paying a few "outsiders" to make some troubles to be able to "catch some events" to combine few images together and give a vision according to the "mental-image"...

plain clothes police officers were around , they got arrested and kicked out the day after ... i very much doubt , those persons will ever be allowed to work again in the country !!
(which is fine ! freedom of press doesn't cover lies ...)


OK , i think we should stop that interesting topic , to go back to those curious things Mr ColdWet call airplanes ... ! ;-)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Fred, no apologies needed.

My consulting has me quite busy as of late so I have only been checking in, seeing very little relevant discussion, and then checking out.

There are some interesting things afoot with the Eclipse BK, the trustee has suddenly asked to schedule a sale hearing in June, this after begging for an additional 90 days (August).

The EOG of course has asked the owners to pony up in advance of this to be in a position to buy the assets, and the various other players have gone silent in terms of media.

I remain convinced that fixes developed apart from the TC itself are not only the best approach for owners, but also the only way the assets have a future value of any kind. If the trustee screws the owners now ($400-500M worth of fielded aircraft) to try and squeeze an extra $5M out of the assets which will go for no more than $35M, the brand will be dead - and whoever ends up with the can of beans at the end of the day will not have the keys to the Magic Kingdom like they thought they were getting. Instead, they will have the keys to Neverland Ranch, sure it was neat once, but the animals are gone, the rides are rusted, and it has the history of being owned by a very wierd pedophile popstar.

fred said...

Mr coldwet :

may i ask a completely stupid question ? (at least i feel it is stupid ! but for once , it is aviation-related ... wow... amazing !;-) )

why do you think buying the "assets" may be a good thing ?

don't you think burying the sore thing called Fpj with the assets would be better as no one needs to embark on the sinking boat it seems to be due to all defects , short-coming and past marketing BS ?

something aimed at making an other plane with what can be "safely" saved from E500 ...

PS: ok , it's 2 questions , sorry for the extra-work ...
anyway , i don't how to count after 3 ... if i would have known i wouldn't have been an economist ! ;-)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Fred,

I do NOT think buying the assets is a good thing, especially for the owners.

Owning the TC brings a slew of issues related to certification, liability, and required ways of doing things that will not exist in an STC/PMA approach.

Put another way, simply owning the TC will cost money, then the data need to be reviewed ($M's), fixes that were in development when the company shut down will need to be evaluated and completed or discarded ($M's), relationships will need to be re-established where possible ($M's).

So, after buying the assets for maybe $30M, someone then still needs to spend $2M to figure out what they have, then $5M for the first year's operation - all that, ~$37M, before a single part is made available, before a single fix is possible, before any AOG plane has a shot at flying again.

Plus, I expect the BK sale hearing to be nasty, I expect challenges and follow-on claims - this thing will not be settled before year's end, meaning parts could be as much as 12 months away.

No, the best approach for owners who want to continue flying, IMO, is to work with someone, maybe myself for example (shameless plug) to establish an independent service and support engineering organization to begin STC and PMA development right away with the willing vendors - it will cost a whole lot less both in the near term and in the long term, and it will be the only way they truly control their own destiny.

Add that to the ability to re-use the engines using ExcelJet's offer, and the owners have something they have never had to date - real world, workable alternatives.

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